The Economic Modern Family came out swinging this week, and that’s before they celebrate St. Patrick’s day!
Mish is out ill today so filling in is her family, Jonathan griffin and Keith Schneider.
S&P 500 (SPY) Back to unconfirmed Bullish phase and reclaimed the January calendar range high at 206.88. Now 206 is the first line of support and 204.40 if the last line of defense. Otherwise still in gear to go higher Subscribers: Positive Pivots in all
Russell 2000 (IWM) Sitting at all time highs, paused at the one month calendar high. Still the strongest index with a nice base of support around 119 to 120
Dow (DIA) Unconfirmed bullish phase. Trend is strong yet still has significant overhead at 181.
Nasdaq (QQQ) Bull phase, significant overhead at 108, support at 104.59.
XLF (Financials) Cleared and closed over 24.60 now we need to see this clear 24.90 to really be in gear!
KRE (Regional Banks) Tight trading range with a potential setup for an explosive move to the upside.
SMH (Semiconductors) Improved in condition, important support at 54.00. After the good bounce off a retracement to the 50 DMA and a trend line going back to 12/8/2014
IYT (Transportation) Strong move up. Good sign for the overall economy.
IBB (Biotechnology) New all time high close! Parabolic move continues with no overhead in sight!
XRT (Retail) Can’t argue with a new all time high close, however still needs to clear 99.75 to take out all resistance.
IYR (Real Estate) The weak other sister! Very sensitive to a rate increase.
ITB (US Home Construction) Inside day, weak performer, waiting on Yellen!
GLD (Gold Trust) Most unusual pattern. Four narrow range days of compression near the lows.
GDX (Gold Miners) If looking for a metals play this is the one. Holding up much better than bullion.
USO (US Oil Fund) OIL Possible blow off bottom, very oversold, climax volume. If looking to play crude the OIL ETF looks best.
OIH (Oil Services) Possible slingshot. This confirms the action we have seen in the oil market. Look here for stocks to play tomorrow!
XLE (Energy) Coming off oversold, energy sector bouncing off resent lows and looking washed out!
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) If holds 42.00 can look for an reentry-otherwise, waiting for 40.00
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLTs support 126.25 and resistance at 128.20
UUP (Dollar Bull) Took a day to rest near the highs.
EWW (Mexico) Improved in condition yet still needs to clear the 50 DMA at 58.30.
EWG (Germany) Strong move up after gaping on the open, cleared and closed over recent highs!
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: N/A
Category 2: N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy an opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
EBAY Inside day, like over 60.15 for a miniswing
INCY inside day like on a BO over 92.00 or on an ORR against 90.00
KSS Has room over 75.00 if holds 74.00, best for an ORR or BO over 75 for a day to mini
*AAPL Inside day, best over 125.40 and then 125.78 the 10 DMA good risk for all timeframes.
ADSK Best on an ORR with swing risk to under 59.00
*LVLT 2 Inside day’s like for a miniswing over 55.00
PANW Best on an ORR against 142 to 143 area
Category 4: N/A
Phase Change:
XOM Confirmed Brickwall low. Dealers choice on how to play this as we have room for a four ATR move to resistance.
BAX Like this on weakness with a stop under 66.00
SPWR Inside day like it for a new swing over 33.00
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
DISH Like under 73.00 or on an ORR against 74.00 area
MON lets try again. Slightly positive pivots so like best under S1
CTRP Inside day, like under PDL for a miniswing
DOV 2 inside days, like under 71.00 with risk over 72.00
DD Brick wall high, best for an ORR against
Category 6: N/A
Best Best wishes for your trading,
Michele Schneider
