Michelle Schneider will be on vacation until 3/21. In her absence, Matthew Mullins ( Assitant Director of Trading Education and Research, and leader of the Day Trading chat room) will prepare the abbreviated Evening Watch.
S&P 500 (SPY) Potential resistance overhead at the 10 DMA. The 10 DMA is at 187.06Subscribers: Positive pivots in all indexes
Russell 2000 (IWM) Broke out of the inside day but could not hold the 10 DMA. Look for 118.75 to clear.
Dow (DIA) Closed over the 50 DMA to put this instrument back into an unconfirmed bull phase. Watch for the 10 DMA to clear (163.01)
Nasdaq (QQQ) Looks better over 90.22
XLF (Financials) 22.14 needs to clear. Watch pdl as support.
SMH (Semiconductors) 43.64 should be support. Watch for this to clear the 10 DMA.
IYT (Transportation) Broke out of the inside day. Needs to clear 136.95.
IBB (Biotechnology) Compressed between the 10 DMA and the upward sloping 50 DMA
XRT (Retail) 85.19 should be support. Watch for this to take out the 10 DMA.
IYR (Real Estate) Support at the 68.50 area. Has held up very well.
XHB (Homebuilders) Has been trading within the range of the 3/13 candle. Looks good over the 3/13 high.
GLD 130.15 fills the gap.
USO (US Oil Fund) Broke down under the 50 DMA to put this into an unconfirmed bear phase. Looks very heavy under today’s low.
OIH (Oil Services) Needs to hold the 50 DMA at 47.15.
XLE (Energy) Holding the 50 DMA and looks poised for a move up to recent highs. Next hurdle is 87.31.
UUP (Dollar Bull) Inside day
EEM (Emerging Markets) Subscribers: Approaching the converging 10 and 50 DMAs at 39.12.
KRE (Regional Banks) Subscribers: Looks great over 41.47.
CORN (Corn) Subscribers: Forming a pennant formation under the 200 DMA ( 34.29)
BAL (Cotton) Subscribers: Inside day
SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: Confirmed the Recovery phase
****NOTE: I left 6 positions on in the model portfolio with GTC orders and targets. Geoff will be adjusting these every day. Watch for a text, but more reliably, figure that after 30 minutes, he will update everything on the model.
Have a lot of picks because they can be referred to each day while I’m on vacation with Matt watching for entries.
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha) N/A
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
FNSR Inside day. 24.96 needs to clear and 24.13 needs to hold.
FDX Watch for a breakout or ORR over the 10 DMA. 139.29 is potential resistance.
JNJ Watch for a breakout or reversal against the 10 DMA. 94.2 needs to clear.
GNW Inside day. 10 DMA is max risk and 17.00 needs to clear.
KLAC Watch for a breakout over today’s high, which is an important inflection point.
YHOO I prefer an ORR against the 50 DMA to control risk.
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
GME Confirmed a phase change to bull. Watch for a breakout or ORR against the 50 DMA.
EL 70.45 needs to clear and the 10 DMA needs to hold.
AMZN Moved into an unconfirmed bull phase today. Watch for a breakout or ORR over the 50 DMA.
HSP Today’s low needs to hold. Looks great over today’s high. Watch for a breakout or reversal against the 50 DMA.
PG Breaking out of a base and moved into an unconfirmed Accumulation Phase.
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
BIDU S1 needs to break and today’s high cannot clear. Watch for a breakdown or Opening Range reversal.
AGCO Watch for a breakdown or ORR under S1 (51.83)
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots.. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day’s lows
MR Cannot break R1. Watch for a breakdown under today’s low and S1.
Bye For Now!
