Ode To The Federal Reserve (To the tune of You Oughta Know)
And I’m here to remind you
Of the mess you’d leave if you went away
It’s not fair to deny me
Of the cash I’ve made that you gave to me
You, EWE, you oughta know!
S&P 500 (SPY) Digestion came right on cue in the sheep pasture and according to our trading plan-inside day Subscribers: Positive Pivots in all
Russell 2000 (IWM) An inside day near the new highs-please try to keep the sheep analogy (expands out of the boundaries and rallies, then retreats with selling, may retreat further with sheep scattering, some get sheared, some die, but in the end, the herd comes back to graze) along with the Economic Modern Family (strongest index and groups) in your minds
Dow (DIA) Inside day
Nasdaq (QQQ) Inside day with 108 a very nearby support level but not the end all be all one to hold. Over 109-could see new highs soon
XLF (Financials) we need to see this clear 24.90 to really be in gear!
KRE (Regional Banks) One of our family even it it’s getting testier. I don’t mind the correction here. No real damage done
SMH (Semiconductors) Inside day over 56.45
IYT (Transportation) 165.17 the high to clear and 162 area to hold
IBB (Biotechnology) March Madness!
XRT (Retail) New highs keeping the herd happy
IYR (Real Estate) Confirmed return to a bullish phase.
ITB (US Home Construction) To stay in the running, has to clear 27.83
GLD (Gold Trust) Could be bottoming-had an inside day here too
USO (US Oil Fund) Inside day-over 16.57 could bring back some buyers
OIH (Oil Services) Triple bottoms, a big run then an inside day
XLE (Energy) Stuck under the 50 DMA and over the 10 DMA with an inside day
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Unconfirmed phase change to recovery is now back to unconfirmed phase change back to bearish
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Inside day
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Confirmed phase change in TLTs back to Bullish with an inside day
UUP (Dollar Bull) Greenback is that-green and back
EEM (Emerging Markets) Cleared the 50 and 100 DMAs Wednesday along with the rest of the herd-then on Thursday, followed the herd right back under both Moving Averages
EWW (Mexico) Subscribers: Now, until it takes out the base its been trying to forming since December, will wait
EWG (Germany) Looks good over 30.00
EWY (South Korea) Inside day after the move and really like now over 57.57
RSX (Russia) 16.75 could not hold-stay away from this one for now
BAL (Cotton) Subscribers: Think this is bottoming so looking for an entry somewhere around 41.70-41.90
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: N/A
Category 2: N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy an opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
AFL “Lets revisit if has an inside day and it did.” 62.40 good risk and like over today’s high
IGT Inside day and has to take out 17.84-have to do a swing risk since the ATR is so small
OC Unconfirmed phase change to bullish if holds today’s low and clears today’s high even better-mini to swing
ILMN Good day and if holds today’s lows can look at an ORR or over 200, a shorter trade-day to mini
Category 4: N/A
Phase Change:
NSC Inside day and like over R1 for a mini to swing trade risk to 109.75 max
SPWR 32.05 max risk now and still consolidating-like over 33.00
BBRY Reports March 27th before the open Since still bullish on the fundamentals, over 9.90 have a new lower risk trade to recent lows 9.50
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
GNC 46.64 max risk with support at 44.70 then 42.50 for a mini
GEL Inside day under all moving averages with max risk 44.90-swing
CMI Inside day and under all moving averages-max risk 139.75 or miniswing setup
Category 6:N/A
Best Best wishes for your trading,
Michele Schneider
