Market got through Cyprus, Bernanke, yet still has the looming island top candle in the S&P 500. Unless that gap gets filled (156.22), the buzz around here is caution. After all, I am now beginning to see images of a fly heading into a Venus Fly trap!
S&P 500 (SPY) It's all about that gap to the island top, which if this can hold today's gap higher, might be less elusive. But if not, I would take that as a sign that a spring correction (Happy Spring Equinox) is upon us. Subs: Pivots positive
Russell 2000 (IWM) Small caps are still key to whether or not the bull move of 2013 remains or goes away. Subs: R1 and today's high line up.
Dow (DIA) Same. Has to hold the low of the gap higher today and with a doji, show some muscle
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) 67.50 is key to hold and 69.00 the area to break above Subs: Pivots positive and has to clear R1
ETFs:
GLD 155 the key to hold Subs: White cap trade if breaks S1 using today's high as a risk for short
XLF (Financials) Narrow range, inside day. Not surprising really. Financials are in a holding pattern
IBB (Biotechnology) Better, but overbought with a brick wall high to clear.
SMH (Semiconductors) Better confirmation of the 50 DMA support. Back through 35.50 even better Subs: Took a small position to test the waters. But really, 35.26 is the first spot that has to clear before I add
XRT (Retail) Strong action here, a good sign.
IYT (Transportation) Broke with FedEx. But, holding the fast moving average with an inside day Subs: Might reenter over R1 since no reason to get negative
IYR (Real Estate) Interesting doji, hammer, inside day.
USO (US Oil Fund) Inside day and hugging the 200 DMA
OIH (Oil Services) Confirmed phase change to weak warning with an inside day. Subs: Would consider buying over R1 if willing to risk to under S2 41.39
XLE (Energy) Held the 50 DMA with an inside day. Subs: Over 79.10 returns over the 10 DMA
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Back to unconfirmed bullish phase. Subs: Took home ½ long position from the OR reversal
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Inside day
XHB (Homebuilders) Did what it had to do
UUP (Dollar Bull) 22.64 key
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
P Has 5 days under pivots with max risk 13.48. Another cross over 14.00 and still looking at 16.00
MOS If holds 61.00 and market firms, could resume move up especially since it is holding the 80 monthly moving average.
STX Inside day. For swing has to hold the 50 DMA. For mini has to hold today's low. In both cases, should clear R1
ACT Inside day after 3 days down and max risk 89.20 with R1 and today's high lining up
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
EMN 72.75 good risk now and has to get through around 74.00
PX if continues to hold above the 10 DMA, through 114 should see a good rally
PM Today's low max risk and as a 2013 pick, if holds here, would stick with it
AXP Inside day. Today's low a good risk. More miniswing trade
SPLK Like over Tuesday's high with today's low a good risk after an inside day.
CMI Returned over the 50 DMA making today's low max risk. If can clear the 10 DMA, might see a good move higher especially if market improves
AIV A safer trade since it is not a big stock. Inside day. Has to hold today's low although 30.00 is also great support. Since cleared the 80 monthly moving average, has long term potential
TXT Peeked over the 80 monthly moving average. 30.72 is the 10 DMA support and over these highs, who knows if economy improves.
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
AOL Tested the 50 DMA and holding that gap. Inside day so continue to watch this one over today's high and R1
Phase Change: MJN Nearly a second Inside day on the converging moving averages. HLX weak warning phase and inside day with good risk to under 22.00 for swing if can get through R1
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
AAPL Inside day now negative pivots. Still watching S1
FNSR Sitting on the 200 DMA but with an inside day worth watching
MDVN More of a white cap, which means has to break under S1.
Bye for Now!
