Michelle Schneider will be on vacation until 3/21. In her absence, Matthew Mullins ( Assitant Director of Trading Education and Research, and leader of the Day Trading chat room) will prepare the abbreviated Evening Watch.
S&P 500 (SPY) Inside day. Looks much better over 188. Today’s low must hold. Subscribers: Positive pivots in all indexes
Russell 2000 (IWM) Two inside days! The direction of the inside day’s range break will be a good indicator for the direction of Friday’s overall direction. 119.88 needs to clear and 118.10 needs to hold.
Dow (DIA) Inside day holding the 50 DMA. Watch the direction of the range break. If today’s low breaks, watch the 50 DMA to be support.
Nasdaq (QQQ) Inside day. 90.66 needs to clear and today’s low needs to hold.
XLF (Financials) Very strong today. XLF made new 2014 highs today. Regional banks are especially strong.
SMH (Semiconductors) Broke recent highs and closed at a new all time high.
IYT (Transportation) Resistance at 136.94. 133.60 should be support.
IBB (Biotechnology) Indecisive doji day. Has support at the 50 DMA.
XRT (Retail) Inside day. Watch 85.55 for support.
IYR (Real Estate) This found support on the upward sloping 50 DMA.
XHB (Homebuilders) Closed under the 10 DMA. The 50 DMA, at 32.50 should be support.
GLD Doji day
USO (US Oil Fund) Wedged between the upward sloping 50 DMA and 200 DMA. Looks good over 35.87.
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Holding the 10 DMA. 69.30 should hold.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Inside day.
UUP (Dollar Bull) Gapped higher and had a doji day. 21.57 is the 50 DMA.
EEM (Emerging Markets) Subscribers: Confirmed the Bear phase.
KRE (Regional Banks) Subscribers: New 2014 high. Strong group!
BAL (Cotton) Subscribers: Looks great over 58.23
****NOTE: I left 6 positions on in the model portfolio with GTC orders and targets. Geoff will be adjusting these every day. Watch for a text, but more reliably, figure that after 30 minutes, he will update everything on the model.
Have a lot of picks because they can be referred to each day while I’m on vacation with Matt watching for entries.
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha) N/A
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
TSL Closed over the 10 DMA. Watch for a breakout over today’s high or a reversal against the 10 DMA.
BYD 2 inside days. Needs to clear 14.58 and hold today’s low. Recently over the 80 month moving average.
DOW Looks great over 50.46. Watch for a breakout or ORR over that level.
HIG Recently over the 80 month moving average. Watch for a breakout or reversal over the 10 DMA. Very strong group.
VLO Looks explosive over today’s high (55.60). Today’s low is max risk.
WLL Inside day. Today’s high needs to clear and today’s low is max risk.
MBI 2 Inside days and is recently over the 80 month moving average. 14.79 needs to clear and the 10 DMA is max risk.
LM Watch for a breakout or reversal over today’s high. Recently over the 80 month moving average.
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
JNPR Moved into a confirmed Bull phase and is recently over the 80 month moving average. Watch for a breakout or ORR against the 50 DMA. Bullish engulfing day.
PRU Moved into an unconfirmed phase change to bull. Watch for a breakout or ORR against the 50 DMA.
X Moved into an unconfirmed bull phase. Watch for a breakout or ORR against the 50 DMA.
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
MNST Watch for a breakdown or reversal under the 50 DMA. The 50 DMA is max risk.
AGCO Inside day. Watch for a breakdown under today’s low. Today’s high is max risk.
JBL watch for a breakdown or opening range reversal under the 2/5 low and S1, which line up (17.24).
Bye For Now!
