Michelle Schneider will be on vacation until 3/21. In her absence, Matthew Mullins ( Assitant Director of Trading Education and Research, and leader of the Day Trading chat room) will prepare the abbreviated Evening Watch.
S&P 500 (SPY) The 189.00 area should be support. Subscribers: Positive pivots DIA and IWM. Negative pivots in SPY and QQQ.
Russell 2000 (IWM) 118.50 is the 10 DMA. Watch that level to be support. If that breaks 118.10 area should hold.
Dow (DIA) Closed just over the 10 DMA. Watch to see if that can hold.
Nasdaq (QQQ) This was the worst performing index on Friday. If 88.63 breaks, expect a test of the 50 DMA.
XLF (Financials) Has been very strong. However, it closed with a possible slingshot high on Friday. Watch to see if this confirms on Monday. If so, expect a test of the 10 DMA.
SMH (Semiconductors) Possible slingshot high on Friday. Watch to see if Friday’s low can hold.
IYT (Transportation) Resistance at 136.94. 133.60 should be support.
IBB (Biotechnology) Nasty day in IBB! This is now in an unconfirmed warning phase.
XRT (Retail) Watch 85.55 for support.
IYR (Real Estate) This found support on the upward sloping 50 DMA. Closed over the 10 DMA.
XHB (Homebuilders) Closed under the 50 DMA to put this into an unconfirmed warning phase. 32.35 should be support.
USO (US Oil Fund) Wedged between the upward sloping 50 DMA and 200 DMA. Looks good over 35.88.
OIH (Oil Services) 49.34 is potential resistance. This is nearing overbought conditions.
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Holding the 10 DMA. 69.30 should hold. Looks great over 71.27.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Broke down out of the inside day.
UUP (Dollar Bull) Two indecisive doji days in a row.
EEM (Emerging Markets) Subscribers: 39.04 is the downward sloping 50 DMA.
KRE (Regional Banks) Subscribers: Possible slingshot high.
BAL (Cotton) Subscribers: Clearing recent highs
SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: Nearing the 50 DMA at 54.78
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha) N/A
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
HIG Recently over the 80 month moving average. Watch for a breakout or reversal over the 10 DMA.
WLL Watch for a breakout or opening range reversal over Friday’s high. Friday’s low is max risk.
MBI Recently over the 80 month moving average. The 10 DMA is max risk. Watch for a breakout or ORR.
MAR Breaking out over recent highs. Watch for a breaqkout or ORR over 53.03.
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
CI Watch for a breakout over the 2/4 low at 83.68. 50 DMA is max risk.
AAPL Moved into an unconfirmed bull phase on Friday. Watch for a breakout or ORR over the 50 DMA.
HCA Moved into an unconfirmed bull phase on Friday. Watch for a breakout or ORR over Friday’s high.
XRX Moved into an unconfirmed bull phase on Friday. Watch for a breakout or ORR over the 50 DMA. Recently over the 80 month moving average.
DRI Moved into an unconfirmed Accumulation phase. Watch for a breakout or ORR against the 200 DMA.
SODA Watch for a breakout or ORR over 42.32. 10 DMA is max risk.
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
LEN Watch for a breakdown or OR high failure with the 50 DMA as max risk.
MA Watch for a breakdown or ORR under Friday’s low.
OCN Watch for a breakdown or ORR under Friday’s low. The 10 DMA is max risk.
Bye For Now!
