NASDAQ did its part to defend the 50 DMA, ending the day with an inside day, unconfirmed phase change to bullish. The market tone in the S&P 500 remains negative, but SPY also had an inside day-and a doji one at that (the opening and closing prices practically the same).
The Russell 2000s closed red. The 50 DMA sits just underneath making this the index to watch Wednesday. The Dow was the winner with IBM soaring above the 200 DMA.
A low volume drift higher gives some encouragement, but not real enthusiasm. The inside day scenario in 2 out of the 4 indices, will make tomorrow range break important.
S&P 500 (SPY) 187.10 good area to clear while Tuesday’s low important to defend Subscribers: Positive pivots except in IWM
Russell 2000 (IWM) 115.50 the 50 DMA to watch. Over 118.30 new life
Dow (DIA) 162.45 support to hold.
Nasdaq (QQQ) Unconfirmed bull phase but not with a lot of oomph-big one to watch for range break
XLF (Financials) 22.19 the fast moving average. Still in play if holds up
SMH (Semiconductors) Performed well and still with lots and lots of upside. Subscribers: 44.60 area to defend
IYT (Transportation) Like over 136.00
IBB (Biotechnology) Inside day and perhaps the rally that could meet with more selling Wednesday.
XRT (Retail) Without retail, market will have issues. 83.30 key support
IYR (Real Estate) 67.00 is the weekly moving average and ultimately the place to defend by the end of this week
XHB (Homebuilders) Inside day confirming the warning phase
GLD Inside day and about to get a golden cross
USO (US Oil Fund) 35.58 important support to hold or will lose the 50 DMA
OIH (Oil Services) Snuck up to new 2014 highs
XLE (Energy) Inside day and looks better over Tuesday’s highs
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Inside day near the highs for 2014-good one to watch
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Defended the lows yet needs to clear 69.00
EEM (Emerging Markets) Subscribers: The 200 DMA is right there
EWG (Germany) Looks better especially if clears Tuesday’s high
FXI (China Large Cap Fund) Subscribers: Didn’t quite make the phase change. Will watch for that tomorrow or tighten our stop
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Subscribers: Inside day on the 50 DMA-Like to see today’s lows hold
CORN (Corn) Subscribers: Inside day on the 10 DMA
BAL (Cotton) Subscribers: Spectacular turnaround-60.53 high in 2013
FCG (First Trust ISE Reserve NatGas) Subscribers: Inside day and a good looking chart
SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: Has to get going over 56.00 and soon
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
MBI R1 14.62 and has to hold 14.40 the 10 DMA-has lots of room
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
BEAV Inside day. Near the highs-has to clear 88.75 to continue up to perhaps 96.00
SLCA Good start but couldn’t clear R1-tomorrow that area lines up well with today’s high. Risk to today’s low
OC Waited for an ORR but didn’t get one-now, has to clear 44.33
SHO Inside day near the highs. Has to clear 14.00
SPN Inside day. looks good over 29.95 especially if holds 28.70
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
DRI Over today’s high has a good risk to the 200 DMA and today’s low
JCP Long with a good stop-like to see it clear 9.00 again
SODA Now have to wait for 44 to clear to get in for a new miniswing type risk
XOM Watching 96.00 to clear
SCTY Didn’t confirm the slingshot but over today’s high still has a chance
ONVO could have a 2 day brick wall pattern if clears today’s high and R1
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
TWC Short 2/3 swing position against the 50 DMA
CTRX Inside day. Cannot clear 45.86
Bye For Now!
