It felt like an up day but it wasn't. Why? Some sectors rocked while others were lackluster yet others were negative. Doldrums began to set in midday with expectations for tomorrow, the day before a long holiday, are pretty much for a boring session. Homebuilders, oil, biotech did exceptionally well. Financials, particularly stocks within this group were negative, along with short bonds, which continues to be the most worrisome consideration all around for more upside (rush to safety with long bonds). Phases in the indexes are well intact with the recent highs so close. Sideways action prevails there. And so it goes.
S&P 500 (SPY) If clears 156.27 safe bet it will test the highs, just not sure if it will do it before the weekend. Subs: Pivots Negative to watch for-which means if cannot get going, wouldn't take it as a sign of failure, but would not rush into any longs
Russell 2000 (IWM) Impressive hold of 93.00, but again, how much muscle to prove itself ahead of the weekend Subs: Range now is 93 to 95. In the middle, aside
Dow (DIA) 145.35 is the recent high with high RSIs on the weekly chart
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Bullish engulfing pattern but still has to hold 67.50 (the 50 DMA) and clear 69.00. Subs: Slightly negative pivots
ETFs:
GLD 156.80 to 154.00 its established range for now
XLF (Financials) Like to see this move up or another reason the Venus Fly Trap theory still looms. Subs: Over 18.30 could be an add if long or a place for a new long
IBB (Biotechnology) As suspected, first to explode to upside-foreshadowing?
SMH (Semiconductors) 35.50 is really the place to clear
XRT (Retail) 70.81 is potential double top which is yet another reason I am seeing some real good and some real bad signs.
IYT (Transportation) Remains under the fast moving average and really, possibly acting a bit toppy.
IYR (Real Estate) A bright spot. 69.35 big point to clear now
USO (US Oil Fund) Confirmed bullish phase
OIH (Oil Services) Cleared the 50 DMA for an unconfirmed phase change to bullish
XLE (Energy) 79.50 now pivotal as this closed just above and looks strong
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Like to see this close out the week over 61.00 for a new move up
XHB (Homebuilders) Better but still has a brick wall at higher levels which has to clear
UUP (Dollar Bull) Eked above the weekly moving average and if closes out week here, expect more upside
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.
*NOTE: Ahead of long weekend, not that enthusiastic about getting long for anything more than a day trade for the most part. Here are the "safest" swing trades
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
MTW Crossing the 80 monthly this month. Recent high 21.35 which should take this to another leg up. Eyes on this one for follow through over today's high
BEAM R1 is a good place to clear now
MGM 12.79 is the 50 DMA and a place I am looking to hold
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
ADSK Long and want to see it clear 41.20 to add-took a small starter position for swing with risk under 40.00
P Reversal would be good against 13.60
PXD A reversal most likely preferred against the pivots
LIFE For swing has to hold 63.00. For mini, 63.90 should hold. See potential to 66 and beyond
PM 92.00 is the new support area to hold-still like this longer term if we can control risk on new entry
YELP 23.00 now support to hold. Still like this longer term as well
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
MBI 10.31 if holds, can see a move up
Phase Change: AMT Unconfirmed phase change to bullish but has to hold the 50 DMA and clear last 4 days of highs SODA Unconfirmed phase change to bullish. Like the risk to pivots if firm WLT EXXI possible slingshot low NTES has to clear recent highs or hold the pivots to get me interested ahead of a weekend DVN Converging moving averages in an accumulation phase. Today's low max risk and through R1 could get interesting Daytrade: JCP if holds 14.72, this can get a good short covering rally
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
SPG Today's high max risk as still has heavy looking chart
TCK Max risk today's high. Could eventually break 25.00
Bye for Now!
