Perhaps S&P 500 holding the 50 DMA is a sign that the worst for this week is over. Perhaps, it just means the short shooters show up at the end of the week, taking it down beneath.
Certainly looking at closing prices on the indices, one can surmise, that the market remains vulnerable with the freshest of sellers a bit dried up for now.
Loving the commodities plays this year-especially the softs. We rode coffee up-now no position, took multiple profits in corn-still friendly, been in and out of sugar, cotton, oil and energy. All in all, the best places to be, giving us ample patience to wait out the gyrations of the equities markets, cherry picking those with the best risks.
On the equities side of market life-right now, the real estate sector intrigues me. Held the 50 DMA and a weekly close over 67.00 defends the weekly moving average. Having spent years under water, holding these levels could easily give the group new life.
Perhaps the best sign of the day is the volatility index which sold off significantly looking like a trendline break possible then trip closer back to the recent lows
S&P 500 (SPY) 186.05 and above new life. Otherwise, all eyes on the 50 DMA Subscribers: Negative Pivots in all
Russell 2000 (IWM) 115.49 is the 50 DMA-will be real interesting to see if this holds end of week
Dow (DIA) Best performing group-162.50 good level to cross and the 50 is sitting there also beckoning
Nasdaq (QQQ) I would find it hard to believe this can cross back over the 50 DMA so eyes here for a reality check if the other indices firm
XLF (Financials) 21.70 the 50 DMA 22.20 the point to clear
SMH (Semiconductors) Confirmed a top for now-watching how far it corrects
IYT (Transportation) Hello 50 DMA
IBB (Biotechnology) Held the January opening prices-watch to see if that support give it more bounce
XRT (Retail) My vote for most likely to visit the underlying weekly moving average
IYR (Real Estate) See above
GLD 125.65 if clears would not rules this out
USO (US Oil Fund) gap and hammer doji-over 37.34 negates the island top
OIH (Oil Services) Inside day near the highs
XLE (Energy) Couldn’t quite close over 88.00 but good clearance of that as the week comes to an end, is encouraging
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Gave us the strength we sought-now has to clear 71.00 really
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Where she stops nobody knows
UUP (Dollar Bull) Looks to be basing
EEM (Emerging Markets) In an unconfirmed accumulation phase
EWG (Germany) Confirmed bullish phase
FXI (China Large Cap Fund) Subscribers: confirmed phase change to recovery
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Subscribers: A weekly close over 42.50 keeps this on the watch for next week
CORN (Corn) Subscribers: Over the 200 DMA
SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: This looks like the new coffee trade of the spring
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Post Earnings: RH huge move post market-watch for a hold over 69.00
Category 1: (Aloha)N/A
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
XOM Like on an ORR against 96.00
Category 4: (Rip Tide)N/A
Phase Change:
K Inside day right under the 200 DMA. Like over 62.09 risk under whatever the low is if moves over the 200 DMA
LNKD Possible slingshot if confirms over today’s high for a starter position TWTR too
SCTY Possible slingshot and oversold on Bollinger Band-like that for a hybrid swing if crosses R1
HSP long some and will look for an ORR or a gap over 42.10
HCA Inside day and still worth watching
THC Like this after the slingshot getting an inside day
DRI Still have eyes here as long as 49.70 area holds. Like to see it clear 50.72 R1
JCP 8.59 the place to hold
SODA 44.00 is still the place
Shorts: Will watch for good short opps but many already beaten up
Bye For Now!
