Last week ended exactly as one would expect-leaving both the bulls and the bears apprehensive.
After all, looking back at the action, the S&P 500 sold off yet held the 50 DMA. NASDAQ remains weak failing to even test its 50 DMA. The Russell 2000s had a more valiant effort at the 50 DMA but gave it up at the end of the session closing red. Finally, the Dow, closed up on the week yet nowhere near the weekly high created on March 26th at 164.33.
The divergences among the various sectors and groups stay a bit mind-numbing. Real Estate managed to defend the necessary daily and weekly moving averages while Homebuilders lingered in a warning phase.Biotechnology dropped precipitously and many country ETFs had an awesome recovery. Energy, Oil and Oil Service Holders all firmed with the stars of the show, the Energy ETF, XLE and Oil and Gas Exploration (XOP) closing on new all-time highs.
The Volatility Index signposted complacency by falling back into a bear phase. That is most confounding as other signs do seem to point to more downside.
It’s enough (more than enough) for anyone to long for 2013!!! Time travel anyone?
S&P 500 (SPY) Some signs of life. Otherwise, keep eyes on the 50 DMA Subscribers: Positive Pivots in all
Russell 2000 (IWM) Tested 115.49 or the 50 DMA-but could not hold it. Has to or continues to look troubling
Dow (DIA) I would have liked to have seen new weekly highs, but at least this held the fast moving average for now
Nasdaq (QQQ) Relative to the January selloff this is still in good shape. But considering that this represents the leaders, until or unless it clears the 50 DMA-warning sign
XLF (Financials) Let’s make it simple, if this firms-great-but if comes in lower and continues to tick lower, the indices will have issues
SMH (Semiconductors) Although a top is still I place, this has a chance based on Friday’s good performance
IYT (Transportation) Question will be whether or not this can continue to hold the 50 DMA
IBB (Biotechnology) A group that has apparently run its spectacular course for now
XRT (Retail) Bounced off the moving averages which again, is really key to determine what the overall market does from here
IYR (Real Estate) Did what it needed to. Now, if holds, will look for a long position
XHB (Homebuilders) Obviously would like to see this return over the 50 DMA, but good strong move
GLD If this gaps up-especially over the 200 DMA, close your eyes and buy
USO (US Oil Fund) Ran in to some resistance but still holding well
OIH (Oil Services) New 2014 highs
XLE (Energy) New all-time high close!!!
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Great high close
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Subscribers: Could be a slingshot low on a 2-day pattern-big eyes here
UUP (Dollar Bull) Hasn’t closed over 21.50 since late February-good point to watch
EEM (Emerging Markets) Confirmed accumulation phase
FXI (China Large Cap Fund) Subscribers: Tested the 200 DMA-like to see it cross
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Subscribers: If Friday low holds, like this group
CORN (Corn) Subscribers: Back under the 200 DMA so needs to clear it again
FCG (First Trust ISE Reserve NatGas) Spectacular in all the oil and gas groups on Friday
SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: This looks like the new coffee trade of the spring
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Existing Position Comments:
*PM Great comeback and now over the 50 DMA-look at an add over 81.88 or on an ORR against the 50 DMA
*HSP If good, will clear the 50 DMA and keep going
*JCP Held the 10 DMA thus far and if can clear 9.27 its off to the races
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
AAPL Good correction to the 10 DMA which is a great risk if clear Friday high and R1-still see 565 as target
X If clears R1 and Friday high this still has lots of room longer term
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
DTV-a Fave with 2 inside days and a close over the 10 DMA. Ris is Friday’s low and could see 79.50 next
DE If holds Friday low, then could see 92 or higher
TSLA if holds 206 as risk, and even closer, Friday low, could see run back to 224 or more
XRX Have to be willing to sit with this one unless it violates the 200 DMA. Then, could see a slow but sustaining grind higher
ARMH If holds 48.07 a good swing trade looking for 54-57.00
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
K Looks really good as it crossed the 200 DMA
TWTR same as LNKD except not enough data to see the 50 or 200 DMAs yet
SCTY Had the ORR Friday but did not hold it. However, now, like on strength over 65.00
THC Like for an ORR
DRI Big eyes here after an inside day.
SODA tested 44 and now has to clear 44.47
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
NTAP More minising trade, but real close to lows and looks lower to 33.55.
CTXS See 53.50 a target if fails 56.91
AMGN 122.20 is good resistance with a break of 118.56 good for to 114.75
Category 6: White Cap-N/A
Bye For Now!
