Dow makes another new high but on pretty light volume and without the cooperation of NASDAQ. Is AAPL the culprit there or is the market once again, in for another major rotation of the industry groups? The Russell 2000 or small caps failed to take out 92.68 the high from 2/20 once again. That remains the main concern for now for a sustained move. However, today was more of a low volume albeit high priced digestion day all around. And, it seems we may be in for more of the same Thursday as the market waits for the jobs report before the open Friday.
S&P 500 (SPY) 2007 peak high 157.52 with 153.28 now good point to hold Subs: Positive Pivots
Russell 2000 (IWM) Big eyes remain here Subs: Pivots Positive
Dow (DIA) New highs and a bit overbought but dips look good unless breaks 140.25
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) If breaks today's low perhaps reason to be concerned, but a bit of correction to 67.75 not too damaging Subs: Pivots remain positive
GLD So far, holding the low from 2/20 with a good bounce today
XLF (Financials) DOJI on new multi-year highs-overall, still looks like higher prices in store
IBB (Biotechnology) Wow
SMH (Semiconductors): Now it's all about 36.00 Subs: If took the swing trade, 35.00 good area to hold.
XRT (Retail) 68.96 the highs could not clear and then a close in the red. Here is where we begin to possibly see some rotation out of this group.
IYT (Transportation) Was looking for 110 got to 110.31.
IYR (Real Estate) Can't say today was a top, but we cannot ignore a bearish engulfing pattern either. And it was a distribution day in volume. Caution in this group too.
USO (US Oil Fund) Subs: If holds 32.16 could be time for a pop-good hybrid trade-mini to swing
OIH (Oil Services) Held the 50 DMA. Subs: Like to see it close the gap to 42.71 and continue up from there before getting excited
XLE (Energy) Subs: 78.72 is the point to clear then could go the way of the other groups that have rallied big
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Unconfirmed phase change to bullish Subs: Will see this trade through with eyes on 68.00 next resistance
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Subs: 59.00 resistance but good job today and like to see 58.00 hold
XHB (Homebuilders) Took out the 2013 highs intraday but closed beneath. And with good volume so eyes here for possible reversal.
UUP (Dollar Bull) Getting closer to a major weekly moving average
JJC (iPath DJ AIG Copper) Subs: Could be a new slingshot low today. Has to clear today's highs
EWI (MSCI Italy Cap Index) Subs: Still long and will manage the trade as a swing. 12.60 next level to clear
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.
Note: In the rotation of groups and sectors, see less potential in real estate, retail and more in oil, energy with financials more of a wildcard for now.
Category 1: (Aloha) N/A Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
WLL Improved to condition 1 if holds today's low.
HCA 36.28 is the right area to watch for a hold if this is still has good potential. Pivots neutral
V 159.86 is Tuesday low to hold now. With 162.77 the 2013 high that has yet to clear
GS Doji. Cleared the 80 monthly moving average with good risk now to 151.20. Has to clear 159, its 2013 high
UTX In 2011 made an all-time high of 91.83. Today made a high of 91.86 and closed slightly green. Can see 94-95.00 if 90.00 holds
HLX Needs to clear 23.48 R1 and hold today's low.
CMI Inside day, neutral pivots. Today's low good risk.
CYH Compressing and a move over 42.55 looks good if today's low holds. Neutral pivots
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
RDC Touched and held the 50 DMA and now over today's high lines up with R1
Phase Change: ACT A bit high on the daily RSI but if holds S1,can still have more upside. MUR Moved off of the 50 DMA and still looks good for more upside if holds today's lows CROX Unconfirmed phase change to accumulation. Has to clear today's high to confirm. X Has a 2 day glass bottom pattern if holds around 20.28 S1. Resistance at the 200 DMA for now. LVS returned over the 50 DMA for an unconfirmed bullish phase if holds51.45. And I's over the 80 monthly moving average. CNQ Returned to an unconfirmed bullish phase with 30.10 the pivotal area ATI Unconfirmed phase change back to bullish if holds 31.20 area SLW (Possible slingshot low)
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
TWC Perfect risk to the 200 DMA 89.84. Projected pivots negative for tomorrow.
BIDU Today's high should not clear with support at 88.00
COH Good risk to today's high and today's low also breaks S1
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day's lows
TDC 60.03 the 10 DMA now max resistance and has to break today's low and S1
Bye for Now!
