The big news is that the small caps, Russell 2000s, closed on new all-time highs! As did the Dow! And as I wrote earlier this week, with the new found euphoria, overbought conditions were not as important as they might be when volume is heavy all along (volume light again last 2 days ahead of the US Jobs Data). The dollar came down some after Draghi spoke, yet the bond rates rose. Please note that I have written about higher rates as good for the US stock market for over a year now. In the sector rotation, oil and energy firmed while transportation, real estate and biotechnology took a rest. Financials are strong and semiconductors-stuck in the middle of a critical range.
S&P 500 (SPY) 2007 peak high 157.52 with 154.00 now good point to hold Subs: Positive Pivots
Russell 2000 (IWM) Uncharted territory now unless it fails to close the week out over 92.54 the old 2013 closing high. Subs: Pivots Positive
Dow (DIA) Another new high
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Inside day. Subs: Pivots positive-good one to note and follow the range break up or down
GLD So far, holding the low from 2/20 with an inside day today.
XLF (Financials) Looking a bit parabolic. Subs: 18.37 is 1.5 ATRs from entry if want to lighten there on a hybrid trade
IBB (Biotechnology) Taking a breath and at the top of a weekly Bollinger Band.
SMH (Semiconductors): Now it's all about 36.00 Subs: If took the swing trade, 35.15 good area to hold. If looking to enter long, RSIs came down a bit
XRT (Retail) 69.00 has been a bit of a wall to push through. Will watch what happens here closely
IYT (Transportation) Took a breath. Subs: The monthly chart and how to look at this featured on today's video.
IYR (Real Estate) 2 day correction or early warning sign? We should know more with tomorrow's action.
USO (US Oil Fund) Tested the fast moving average but did not retreat much from it which means looking like a near-term bottom has formed.
OIH (Oil Services) This group is sitting in limbo. Has to clear this week's range one way or another Subs: Closed the gap to 42.71 in the post market so eyes here
XLE (Energy) 78.72 is the point to clear then could go the way of the other groups that have rallied big
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Confirmed phase change to bullish Subs: Not yet overbought which is amazing
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Subs: Nice move out of the 59 resistance
XHB (Homebuilders) 2 day correction or early warning sign? We should know more with tomorrow's action.
EWI (MSCI Italy Cap Index) Subs: Still long and will manage the trade as a swing. Through today's high could be an add
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
AMZN 2 inside days and worth noting because of that.
KLAC If holds 54.50 after an inside day, and takes out today's high, still looks good for move up to 60 and beyond if market stays good
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
HCA 36.28 is the right area to watch for a hold for swing as this has yet to make a move but easily could get legs
UTX In 2011 made an all-time high of 91.83. Today made a high of 91.89 and closed green. Can see 94-95.00 if 90.22 holds
HLX Inside day. Needs to clear 23.48 and hold today's low.
CMI 118.43 has to clear
GME Inside day and unconfirmed phase change to bullish. Has to hold today's low. Another one that could be good growth into 2013
TEX Inside day with good risk to today's low which also holds the 10 DMA at 32.62. Has to clear 34 to keep going. Also note it is pushing against the 80 monthly moving average. This is one that if the economy stays strong could be a keeper Another one like this is MTW
APC Good oil move if can holds today's low. Next resistance 86.00
CYH Inside day. Compressing and a move over 42.55 looks good if today's low holds.
SLB Needs to clear 78.00 and hold today's low
ROK After an inside day, followed through today. Now, if holds today's low and market stays good, can see new highs
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
RDC Now, can use S1 as a risk if this finally makes its way over 34.80
Phase Change: CROX Confirmed phase change to accumulation. Now, 15.75 is a good pivotal area X Has to hold around 20.49 S1. Resistance at the 200 DMA for now. Seems dormant LVS confirmed bullish phase and could continue its journey up. CNQ confirmed bullish phase but with big move watch for an opening range reversal SLW If 30.59 holds, could see the slingshot low take affect after all KSS Not a phase change, but holding in a strong recovery phase. If holds 46.00, takes out 46.77 could be on its way to the 200 DMA again or beyond.
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
ALXN Back on the list with a risk to over Wednesday high 93.50
TWC Inside day. Like risk to Wednesday high. Watch for break of S1.
Bye for Now!
