One of the more interesting points of data to come across my twitter feed last week was a Gallup poll based on telephone interviews conducted from April 4-14th 2013 with a random sample of 2,017 adults. Margin of sampling error plus or minus 3 percentage points. The poll shows that the percentage of U.S. adults invested in the stock market has fallen to lowest levels in over 15 years and continues to drop from its peak in 2007. Without going into the plethora of theories one could come up with as to reasons why-companies not investing as much in 401ks, less personal income, a great divide between Wall and Main Street, etc, etc; two things seem clear from this poll. First, with so much cash sidelined, the market could literally be only in the infancy stage of this bull move. Secondly, and perhaps my greatest wish, is that people need to step back from the talking heads and find reliable, trustworthy mentors (like the Marketgauge crew i.e.) who can help demystify the trading process. Teachable, repeatable, systematic and comprehensible trading strategies are tantamount! That and a great stock picker can't hurt! After all, people are programmed to only feel successful if they don't lose money and have little trust/knowledge in how to invest money to make it grow!
Just a few samples from the awesome feedback I get every day:
@JoeD…@MMMPrem I got in BSX when you mentioned ... buy when crossed 8 that was my plan thanks.
@dogtheboy @MMMPrem Tried one on my own from Nugget list, SPWR using 30 min OR breakout, +1/2 atr using mini swing rules and feeling good!
@bobbyl…@MMMPrem took your advice on TRIP got filled with limit order at 53.63 happy camper so far!
S&P 500 (SPY) Ended the week with an inside day near the highs and not overbought. Good place to begin on Monday. Subscribers: Positive Pivots
Russell 2000 (IWM) 97-98.00 reasonable target if holds 95.00 Subscribers: Pivots Positive
Dow (DIA) 152-53 resistance with gap low from May 06th crucial point to hold. Subscribers: Pivots Slightly Negative
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Inside day at the highs as well. 74.00 still a target but no reason 77-80.00 not in the cards unless this crashes from 71.80 Subscribers: Pivots Positive
ETFs:
GLD Ugly ending back under the 200 weekly moving average. If that is to remain the case, 140.50 now resistance
XLF (Financials) 2 inside days to end the week. Big eyes here for a continuation of the move up just beginning or the first real sign of impending doom if the range breaks to the downside
IBB (Biotechnology) Well, that reverse candle from the highs didn’t last long! Now, ended the week on new highs.
SMH (Semiconductors) Whoa! Making up for 12 years of consolidation in just one week!
XRT (Retail) Buying stuff-what we like to see!
IYT (Transportation) Inside day. Subscribers: Could still be a brick wall from last Thursday, but I rather say an opportunity to see a correction to get back into this group.
IYR (Real Estate) Took a breath at week’s end and now has an inside day and good point to keep going from Subscribers: R1 and Friday high line up
USO (US Oil Fund) Crazy session on Friday, but maintained the Accumulation phase
OIH (Oil Services) 45.12 is the 2013 high and if clears, a very bullish sign
XLE (Energy) Through 81.00 also has huge potential
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Yes, I called it! Now, ended the week over the 50 and 200 simple moving averages. And so it begins-express train to unconfirmed bullish phase. Subscribers: Will watch for an opening range reversal against Friday’s low
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) 60.00 resistance Subscribers: Held the 50 DMA and now needs to get through 60.00. Plus has to break the pattern of lower highs since the peak in March.
XHB (Homebuilders) Going, going, gone
UUP (Dollar Bull) First time this closed over the 200 weekly moving average since the July 2010. Now, 22.69 the 2013 high has to clear.
SGG (Sugar ETF) Subscribers: Like to see 61.76 hold and 17.00 in the futures
RSX (Russia) Subscribers: 27.12 is support as this is now testing the 50 DMA in its new recovery phase
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
NOTE: KSS reports May 16th
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
STLD Perhaps we were one week early on the miners and steel. Now, if 15.12 holds, like this over R1 15.65 and Friday’s high
SWC Tested and held the 200 DMA and closed over the 10 and 50 DMA. Back over 12.60 should get this going again
OI 27.80 is a good risk point looking for this to continue its run over 28.43 R1
Category 2: (Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
MJN Like how this closed on Friday and now, really like the risk to 78.50 area with move over R1 good reason to get in for swing trade anticipating move to highs and beyond
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
TPX Got a bit far from perfect risk but an Opening range reversal would be of interest
TRIP Improved in condition. Support now 53.40 to hold looking at 60.00 target
BEAM Never setup the way I would have liked on Friday but now, looks ready to keep going if holds around 67.00
CVX Has to clear 123.72 and hold 122.50 area conservatively. Has some overhead at 125 but not firm information since will be on new highs
NTAP Reports May 21st. Cleared 36.00 now a place to look at for an add or new miniswing ahead of earnings
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
JPM 48.70 converging moving averages to watch for hold with R1 lining up well with Friday’s high
AWAY Confirmed slingshot and has to hold 29.00 and go back above 29.60
AEM Held the slingshot low. Like that 31.40 is the 10 DMA and R1 is 31.45 all points to clear
GS 147.40 is the 50 DMA to hold. R1 149.63 has to clear then 151 to get this really going”
USG Unconfirmed phase change to bullish provided 26.40 holds. A 2013 pick and still see potential to 35.00
AAPL 450 is max risk as it now corrected from the recent move and over 455 will look better, over 460 better still
Shorts: No shorts with great setups
Bye for Now!
