Bears and bulls frustrated-perhaps the Wolves of Wall Street will fare better tonight for the full moon!
Back to an unconfirmed warning phase in NASDAQ. The small caps continue their distress. The 200 DMA may not mean as much as the low from May 9th 108.28. The Dow has a possible reversal top after Tuesday’sshooting star pattern and the S&P 500 pretty much the same.
The flight to rates continued as it’s in the FEDs/Governments interests to keep rates low and continue to "monetize" the debt. Of course, if inflation starts to show up, that will destabilize the current FED rates equilibrium.
And losing control of rates because of inflation would not surprise me in the least.
So, until then, noise prevails, along with a trading range which supports the recent low volatility and the nominal fear of a major move down.
S&P 500 (SPY) 188.35 next point to look at Subscribers: Negative Pivots in all
Russell 2000 (IWM) Unconfirmed phase change to distribution
Dow (DIA) 165.45 next point to hold
Nasdaq (QQQ) Pretty much closed around 87.90 key support, making this the best place to look Thursday
XLF (Financials) unconfirmed phase change back to warning-remember, everything needs a second day to confirm
SMH (Semiconductors) Low volume unconfirmed phase change back to warning-remember, everything needs a second day to confirm
IYT (Transportation) Reversal candle possibly or just that digestion we anticipated
IBB (Biotechnology) Back in 2010, the rally started here. Maybe, this will take some leadership again. Maybe
XRT (Retail) Distribution day in volume and phase
IYR (Real Estate) Didn’t confirm the reversal candle so still looking okay
GLD Reconciled to the upside-question is will it stay there?
XLE (Energy) Doesn’t look done moving up
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLTs closed below 113.10 the May 2nd high so maybe this is still working a top-
IFN (India Fund Inc.) 23.49 the 2014 high
EWP (Spain) Subscribers: Over 42.23 looks good on a closing basis, especially on long term charts
SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: In futures, a weekly close over 18.35 is strong or 58.90 in SGG
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
GGP If holds today’s low, outperformed and needs to clear today’s high
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
CVX If holds the 10 DMA 125.38 have a good hybrid swing trade to see if this can get to 130 or so
Category 4: (Rip Tide)N/A
Phase Change:
ANF Inside day and over 39 should go more
TEVA Inside day
NFLX Fave for tomorrow if holds today’s low
Shorts: Rather sit aside now
Bye For Now!
