Incredible resiliency remains even if the intraday action had somewhat less sparkle. And, no surprise that today’s leading sectors are my 2013 favorites- all of which seem to like the stronger US Dollar, higher interest rates-Semiconductors, Transportation, Real Estate, Financials and Retail. Once again, commodities were hit on the head-Gold, Oil, Sugar, and Corn—then there’s AAPL (back in the bearish phase). We are still keeping a close look at the VXX (Implied Volatility of the S&P 500 Index) more for a short-term trade.
S&P 500 (SPY) I wish I could fast forward to this coming Friday 3:45 PM EST. Not for greed’s sake, but more because these weekly resistance bands are either left in the dust, or reasons to brace for an impending correction Subscribers: Positive Pivots in all indexes
Russell 2000 (IWM) 97-98.00 was my reasonable target with today’s high 98.67. Snap!
Dow (DIA) 154 new target.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Inside day. 74.00 a target with the last 2 trading days reaching a high of 73.74. But no reason 77-80.00 not in the cards if AAPL holds this $420 level.
ETFs:
GLD Ok-so it took another day to see the move lower. 130.00 recent lows
XLF (Financials) 19.35 now support to hold
IBB (Biotechnology) Correction and the amp remains at 11!! But, that weekly Bollinger Band does indeed loom-again, making me wish I could see Friday afternoon’s price.
SMH (Semiconductors) I will always love you!
IYT (Transportation) Reached and breached target so we’re raising it again to 117.45
USO (US Oil Fund) Impressive comeback by the end of the day. Subscribers: 5 days under pivots which means a move back over 33.65 the 200 DMA also lines up with the FTPs
OIH (Oil Services) 45.12 is the 2013 high and if clears, a very bullish sign
XLE (Energy) Some consolidation over 81.00
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) 60.00 good place to hold Subscribers: 60.85 next point to clear
UUP (Dollar Bull) Made another new 2013 high today-22.90 area next resistance
UNG (United States Natural Gas Fund) Unconfirmed phase change to bullish Subscribers: Cleared the 50 DMA and has to stay above it
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
**NOTE: New and Old Subscribers: I do not include on the list 1. Anything with a weekly or daily RSI over 92 2. Anything within 4 days of reporting earnings 3. Anything with a risk over 1 ATR from its current close 4. Anything with only one day under the Floor Trader Pivots (unless specifically noted. 5. Anything with a potential slingshot or brick wall high (new 60 day high, close in the bottom 25% of the intraday range.)
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
FNP Enough of a correction to see max risk 21.84. First has to clear pivots, then eventually R1 to stay good
Category 2: (Pipeline) n/a
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
CE I have never traded this before, but it did improve in condition with good risk to today’s low. Has to clear recent resistance over 49.50, but if does, next point 2012 high 52.59
ACE Inside day right at the 2013 highs. 92.00 support and if clears 92.69, more interested in this for a miniswing, best case hybrid trade
CREE If holds today’s low, still has room to 65.00-66.00
DO Neutral Pivots. Has to hold 70.00. Over 70.87 could see 75.00
PX Prefer to buy on weakness, but cannot day its return to a condition 1 and so close to the highs. 114.00 max risk with 117 are next resistance
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
CNX 33.38 the 50 DMA to hold. 34.00 good place to clear but also R1 still overhead at 34.40
Phase Change:
NOV 67.70 good risk and has to clear 68.31 then R1
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
FB Unconfirmed warning phase provided it stays under26.78 and R1 26.93. 25.00 support
EXXI 25.10 max risk and under S1 24.57 next support 23.00
Bye for Now!
