Actually not a bad ending to last week with both the weaker indices NASDAQ and Russell 2000s (confirmed reversal candle after Thursday’s rough start) one small push away from taking out the overhead moving averages (QQQ in better shape). S&P 500 and the Dow defended the 50 DMA after all was said and done.
I’m going to say it before I read it on twitter-Turnaround Monday is the newTurnaround Tuesday as the last 2 Mondays have seen big gains. Will this Monday make 3 times a charm?
Here is what I am looking for folks. Besides the obvious penetration of the indices especially IWM and QQQ over the 200 and 50 daily moving averagesrespectively, interest rates continue to be my obsession.
Should the TLTs gap below 113.42 and NOT fill that gap, island top material.The last island I saw and wrote about was the island bottom in the US Dollar (UUP). That happened at 21.21 with the final closing price of the week posted at 21.39 or a 3 times its average range move.
And there I am again-looking for the turn of the dial!
S&P 500 (SPY) Inside day. Held the 50 DMA, clearly that is a line in the sand with a move over 188.60 good Subscribers: Neutral Pivots SPY, Possible in QQQand IWM and Negative in DIA
Russell 2000 (IWM) Nice turnaround from lows, but has to clear the 200 DMA at 110.91
Dow (DIA) Held the 50 DMA and needs to clear 164.90
Nasdaq (QQQ) 88.09 should do it if this is good
XLF (Financials) Inside day and a bit far from the 50 DMA to get excited
SMH (Semiconductors) Inside day with the 50 DMA to clear 44.82
IYT (Transportation) Last 30 minutes on Friday brought in volume-look here Monday morning
IBB (Biotechnology) Siesta on the 200 DMA
XRT (Retail) Cleared the 200 DMA so if stays there maybe finally the worst is over
IYR (Real Estate) Back to looking good
GLD If there were ever an ETF I would remove from my screen-however, at some point it will make some noise
USO (US Oil Fund) If this can fill the gap to 37.55 and continue looks really good
OIH (Oil Services) Inside day on the 50 DMA
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Inside day on the 50 DMA
PHO (Power Shares Water Resources) Confirmed a bottoming type candle
SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: Inside day around the 200 DMA
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
CNX Inside day above the 50 DMA which means has to clear Thursdays high 44.13
OI Great risk to under 32.17 if it clears R1 or 33.20-gives this about a 2 ATR risk
JBLU Held the 50 DMA and now, over R1 would get me back in
XRX 11.76 is the area to defend with a move over 12.03 a reentry for a move up over time
GILD Miniswng risk to Friday’s low with a move over 81.60 good for next resistance 85.70
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
PLD 40.60 now the risk for another look here-it closed over R1 so look for an ORR or breakout over 41.62
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
SPWR Touched the 50 DMA and if holds the gap low 30.66 a good solar to go to especially since over the 80 monthly moving average. R1 is 32.14 to clear
CIEN had a brick wall bottom and cleared the 10 DMA Over R1 is good with risk to 18.00
GOOG Held the 200 DMA and over R1 523.38 will look good after holding the slingshot low
NFLX Inside day over the 200 DMA with over R1 353.29 clearing Thursday’s high as well risk to 339
P Will be my first foray into last year’s fave if clears R1. Slingshot low, risk 22.62
TOL Cleared the 200 DMA and has to hold Friday’s low-good volume end of day, like over R1 34.67
AMPE Love this one over 7.34 for swing with risk to 6.20 or so
WMT Inside day has to clear 77.44 hold 76.37
RNWK Slingshot low which confirmed, then tested the low Friday and ran up putting more than double the average daily volume-in the streaming music space.
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
OXY Unless this clears 96.77 I am looking for a long term short. Target is for this to break 83.22 and head further south-way down the road. Under 95.056 good spot
QIHU If cannot clear Friday high, see this in further decline to 57 or so
DISH If cannot clear the 50 DMA at 60.55 like for a short to see 55 then possible much lower over time
Category 6: White Cap-N/A
Bye For Now!
