In the last minute of the trading session, S&P 500 traded at new 2013 highs and NASDAQ bounded above the 2012 high to make a new multi-year high! Russell 2000 and the Dow are still playing catch-up but it does seem inevitable that those indexes will catch up rather than the prior fear that they are harbingers of looming disaster. Bonds are the most fascinating watch right now as with tomorrow's FOMC release and given moderate growth in the economy, it is really possible and highly probable, the FED will relax on keeping rates low. Will the Bond Bubble come back with a vengeance? Perhaps, perhaps, perhaps.
S&P 500 (SPY) Pretty and with no signs yet of any type of blow off. If anything, the launch pad is on countdown to zero. Subscribers: Pivots positive in all indexes
Russell 2000 (IWM) The move over 94.00 a welcoming sign. 94.96 2012 high to clear and 92.50 critical underlying support
Dow (DIA) Finally cleared the 4/15 high. 146.50 support area to hold and 148.66 recent highs to clear
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Cleared massive resistance with now a projected next target of 74.00 should 70.00 hold
ETFs:
GLD If cannot clear 143.20, watch for chances of a decline, especially under today's low Subscribers: S1 and today's low line up
XLF (Financials) 18.76 recent highs and 18.50 key support. Subscribers: 18.78 will be 2 ATRs from long entry with the option of going to a no loss stop
IBB (Biotechnology) Long term this is a continuing growth area. Short term, it looks a bit tired
SMH (Semiconductors) Closed over 37.00. Subscribers: We locked in some at 3 ATRs but long term still very positive.
XRT (Retail) With consumer confidence in gear, the high 73.74 should clear provided it holds 72.80
IYT (Transportation) High daily RSI but good clearance of recent consolidation Subscribers: The entry at 106 was the one to stick with-now, a bit overbought on daily RSI
IYR (Real Estate) New multi-year closing high again and not overbought
USO (US Oil Fund) Changed to a more negative phase-which could mean lower prices in store unless it gets back over 33.60
OIH (Oil Services) Unconfirmed phase change to bullish Subscribers: Still making lower highs until it clears 43.40 and the 80 monthly moving average
XLE (Energy) Confirmed phase change Subscribers: Didn't hit the chandelier exit so holding tail
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Still see the possible key reversal here but now, have to wait until the FOMC is released Subscribers: As tweeted, got out end of day and will pay up if have to after the minutes are released
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Unless it clears the 50 DMA, a bit vulnerable here Subscribers: Aside now
XHB (Homebuilders) Possible short-term high in place. But, see it more as short-term with the moving averages intact
SGG (Sugar ETF) Subscribers: Long looking for a possible bottom here against the recent lows for a longer term positions
FXI (China) Subscribers: Close to 1.5 ATRs-target for ½ position
RSX (Russia) Subscribers: Didn't add as there was no ORR. 26.86 is 1.5 ATRs to take off second piece of core position
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
**NOTE: New and Old Subscribers: I do not include on the list 1. Anything with a weekly or daily RSI over 92 2. Anything within 4 days of reporting earnings 3. Anything with a risk over 1 ATR from its current close 4. Anything with only one day under the Floor Trader Pivots (unless specifically noted. 5. Anything with a potential slingshot or brick wall high (new 60 day high, close in the bottom 25% of the intraday range.)
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
C Max risk 46.20. After 4 days under pivots, first has to clear pivots at 46.80 and then R1. Would hold for a swing because if it can get over 50, could see a major rally.
DFS Today's low good risk with 43.90 first place to clear (The FTP)
WLP 72.00 good risk area. Like to see it clear today's high.
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
HOG Slightly negative pivots with an inside day. To control risk, use 54.00 as max risk. Needs to clear 54.91.
NTAP Reports May 22nd Long a starter position as this crossed over the 50 DMA. Now, 34.09 area max risk and has to clear recent highs 35.12
CROX Inside day-Big eyes here as 16.15 yesterday's high lines up with R1. 15.80 still a good risk
AMP Began to clear the consolidation in the sideways range. Would not be afraid to buy strength on this or an ORR. To control risk, can use a stop to under today' low. Could see 77.00-78.00 next
CREE Neutral pivots inside day. 55.40 max risk. Still see potential here to 60.00 and beyond
GMCR Reports May 8th. 55.90 max risk and still has to clear 58.00 level
NSC In the swing position from Friday. Approaching overbought, but still looks good to over 80.00
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
AWAY Has to clear today's high and R1 now-then today's low will be the risk
Phase Change:
FDX Dancing around the 200 DMA, with a doji day and closing above. Today's low max risk. Like over today's high.
PCAR Held the bullish phase, but now has to cross R1 50.05 to be back in the gamepreferred
OI Confirmed yesterday's bullish phase change, and peeked over the 200 weekly moving average at the end of the day. Look for a breakout or OR rev. against the 50 DMA.
PETM Reports May 21st Unconfirmed phase change to accumulation. Prefer OR rev against 200 DMA to control risk.
AMZN Climbed over the 200 DMA to establish an unconfirmed warning phase. Today's low max risk. Looking for breakout or OR reversal. 255.00 can be resistance, so great if that clears.
Shorts: While market is in gear, shorts are harder to find
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
WLL Has to break under 43.93 or will wind up scratching on the short. If does break that area, could still see lower prices.
Bye for Now!
