Record High Close in the DJIA!
Federal Reserve Increases the Taper
US Economy Stalls With a Flat GDP!
Private Sector Gains 220,000 Jobs!
Like those headlines? So does the market apparently as NASDAQ also closes above the range (still in warningthough) while the small caps continue to slog through.
Perhaps the biggest surprise post Fed announcement was the drop in rates-not huge nor enough to reverse the possible peak low from earlier this week. So, keep watching TLT/TBTs as the theory I see possibly beginning to play out is one where rates firming (albeit not too quickly) equals a more sustained economic recovery. In other words, the market can finally wean from its dependency on the QE nozzle.
S&P 500 (SPY) Took out 188 with an accumulation day. So many traders are nervous as well they should be. Technical bubble, with accumulation day in volume, not too bad here Subscribers: Pivots Positive
Russell 2000 (IWM) May be lagging but had 3 chances last 3 weeks to break the 200 DMA and didn’t. Wouldn’t want to be long if it tackles that level again, but for now, seems it wants more bounce.
Dow (DIA) DJIA new highs, but this still has more to go to see the high 166.06
Nasdaq (QQQ) Moving in increments where the round number plus .35 is significant. Held 86.35, then cleared 87.35. Now it needs to hold 87.35 and clear 88.35, where the 50 DMA lives.
XLF (Financials) Unconfirmed phase change back to bullish-like to see it stick this time
SMH (Semiconductors) Unconfirmed phase change back to bullish
IYT (Transportation) If this can clear 137.80 no arguing
IBB (Biotechnology) Took out Tuesday high by one tick-don’t see this going to new highs, but do like the hold of the 200 DMA
XRT (Retail) Confirmed the improved phase change. 83.85 next hurdle if holds the 200 DMA
IYR (Real Estate) Looks good to 70.50 level
GLD Held the month moving average support but still see possible down move-no position
USO (US Oil Fund) Drop to the 200 DMA
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Subscribers: Slingshot still in place provided it holds 64.20
KRE (Regional Banks) Possible reversal candle back over the 200 DMA
IFN (India Fund Inc.) Subscribers: Struggled some but held the 50 DMA
EWP (Spain) Subscribers: New high close today
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Subscribers: Since holding the slingshot low now, over R1 41.26 should run more
BAL (Cotton) Subscribers: Doji teeny range day above the recent resistance
SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: Might as well wait for this to take out the 200 DMA
JO (Coffee) Subscribers: Inside day
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha) N/A
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
WFC Over 49.74 will give us a decent risk to the 10 DMA 49.24
HUN Like the inside day here and the risk to today’s low is clear with a move over 25.28
WAG Tested and held the 50 DMA and now over 68.00 should take it up to next level of resistance at 71.00
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
AON Today’s low max risk with tight compression on the 50 DMA
GOOG Inside day-we are in for swing-over 529.46 looks good with a target of around 555
PM Since held the 200 DMA lets looks at today’s low for a risk and a move over 85.83 good
DDD Has a 2-day brick wall pattern with a hold of the 23 monthly. Now, like against 44.00
YELP Had a slingshot low and now reported up in after market. Like if holds 59.70
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
SBGI 2 inside days and under today’s low lines up with S1-risk to today’s highs
Bye For Now!
