It didn’t take long to get the answers to our questions concerning how well the market would take a round of lukewarm economic data or whether or not the US dollar would correct and rates rise. Friday made yet another dizzying move to the upside, with a record high close. Are there any skeptics left? Indeed. I find that exciting. When I traded on the NY Commodities Exchange back in the day, we had an expression: When your taxi driver tells you, “I just bought stocks; market going higher,” the top is near. Since I do not live in NY anymore, I never take taxis. Maybe that’s for the best! The top will be obvious when it’s obvious and not before.
S&P 500 (SPY) After last Thursday’s inside day, this plowed through the weekly Bollinger Band resistance. Last vestige of chart data to base anything on gone. Unless, it comes back beneath it. Subscribers: Positive pivots in all indexes
Russell 2000 (IWM) Inside day Thursday, new highs Friday. Again, uncharted territory.
Dow (DIA) 153 is the weekly Bollinger Band-perhaps the only tangible number we can see going into Monday
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) When I write about possible reversal patterns as I did last Thursday (New highs, closed on the intraday low), that is meant as a head’s up. However, every technical signal needs another day of confirmation. I rest my case.
ETFs:
GLD So oversold now close to the 130.51 2013 low.
XLF (Financials) The financials told the story when a major trend reversal first happened on the weekly chart mid-2012, then again this month when it cleared the monthly moving average. 19.38 is key
IBB (Biotechnology) Ended the week with a meek inside day holding the fast moving average and not clearing the weekly Bollinger Band. But, has had an incredible rally for 2 years!
SMH (Semiconductors) Inside day so has to begin next week clearing 38.87 to continue north.
XRT (Retail) After last Thursday’s nasty bearish engulfing pattern-it ended the week with an inside day. Therefore the range break from last Thursday is a big clue here one way or another.
IYT (Transportation) Strong with next target 120 if holds 116
IYR (Real Estate) Been a leader all year
USO (US Oil Fund) Confirmed accumulation phase
OIH (Oil Services) 45.12 is the 2013 high looking less elusive for this week
XLE (Energy) Took out 81.00 last week and ended on new highs
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Turned out the return to the converging moving averages last Thursday was an incredible buy opportunity. The FED giving up on easing rates makes them look really smart-wow!
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Reversed the lower high pattern of 2013 with a great performance last Friday. This should keep this going since has a lot of catching up to do.
XHB (Homebuilders) Inside day with support on the 10 DMA. Needs to clear 32.55.
UUP (Dollar Bull) Major reversal in the dollar last week.
UNG (United States Natural Gas Fund) Needs to clear the 50 DMA, at 21.97 for a continued move up.
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
**NOTE: New and Old Subscribers: I do not include on the list 1. Anything with a weekly or daily RSI over 92 2. Anything within 4 days of reporting earnings 3. Anything with a risk over 1 ATR from its current close 4. Anything with only one day under the Floor Trader Pivots (unless specifically noted. 5. Anything with a potential slingshot or brick wall high (new 60 day high, close in the bottom 25% of the intraday range.)
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
MJN 80.00 max risk. Now has to clear 80.87 R1 to keep going.
YELP Neutral pivots and still ultimately has to clear the slingshot high, but for now, 30.00 max risk and 31.21 R1 to clear
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
CREE Compressed inside day positive pivots. 60.00 max risk. Has to clear 60.60 R1
TPX Has to hold Friday low. 48.50 point to clear to see move back to 50.00-51.00. Inside day.
TTM Today’s low max risk with a move over 28.10 and could see 30-32.00 next
SPLK Took out my 45.00 target, now a good place to risk foa a move to 47.00 or higher
USG Inside day. 27.40 good risk with 28.31 point now to clear to see a move to 31 or better
PX Opening Range Reversal best against 115 support
HOT Improved in condition. Has to hold Friday low and clear 68.00 to see another leg up
FNP 22.20 now good risk on a reversal. 22.50 a good point to clear
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
HCA Got slammed with the focus on Obamacare. Now, touched the 50 DMA, oversold and Friday’s low good risk 38.71 and has to clear 39.50
Phase Change:
AWAY Now corrected with new risk 29.75 should R1 and the 50 DMA clear
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
NFLX Inside day, negative pivots after slingshot high so has to break 235.20 and not clear 240.40. Decent target is around 224.
PANL 30.85 max risk and has to break 30.00 to see next support 27.00
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day’s lows
CTXS Inside day. Max risk 68.50 the 50 DMA. Under 65.50 could see moves to recent lows or lower.
Bye for Now!
