Turnaround Monday but selectively, concentrated in certain NASDAQ stocks such as TSLA, NFLX, TRIPadvisor to name a few.
NASDAQ itself breached the 50 DMA to close with an unconfirmed bullish phase. Anxiety certainly dissipates when the leaders that have been hammered begin to come back to life.
The TLTs came off their highs again on relatively light volume. More importantly for those watching for a reversal, TLTs tested a major overhead monthly moving average and retreated. Not enough information for confirming that the 3rd and perhaps more significant top is in, but certainly enough to take notice.
The test will be how well the big guns hold up. So far, the pattern has been sell strength, buy weakness with a 1-2 day follow through at best.
With Federal Reserve minutes up Wednesday and an expected slack off in volume ahead of a long holiday weekend, I suspect the bulls will be satisfied with NASDAQ making headway from the current price and the 50 DMA along with the small caps taking and leaving the 200 DMA in the dust.
S&P 500 (SPY) A move and hold over 188.79 even better with 186.50 the absolute line in the sand.Subscribers: Positive Pivots in all
Russell 2000 (IWM) Besides the perma bears, who doesn’t want to see this take out and hold 111.35?
Dow (DIA) In the perverse logic universe, this underperforming is a relief-provided it holds up
Nasdaq (QQQ) A hold and close above 88.61 will be a first since early April. Otherwise, 97.40 big area of support to hold
XLF (Financials) Still a bit far from the 50 DMA to get excited
SMH (Semiconductors) Cleared the 50 DMA now has to clear 45.03 then 45.50
IYT (Transportation) new highs which helped-also hope the heads up on Friday’s volume surge helped my readers
XRT (Retail) Cleared the 200 DMA and trying for the 50 DMA so if stays there maybe finally the worst is over
IYR (Real Estate) Inside day
GLD Even with a decent range, still just chopping around sideways near all the moving averages so keep looking
USO (US Oil Fund) If this can fill the gap to 37.55 and continue looks really good
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLTs higher highs and higher lows. I will keep watching for the final frontier for low rates
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha) N/A
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
OI We are in for a swing with some great end of day volume
JBLU Hesitated on the entry and now over 8.91 clears last weeks high with new risk 8.59 or an ORR good too
GILD Miniswng trade-the 30 minute OR didn’t give much today so now, look for an ORR
WFC Back to looking at 50.01 to clear with the risk to today’s lows if does
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
KORS Like that the gap from February has not been filled and now, clearing the 50 DMA for a low risk to under today’s low with a move over 95 good confirmation-Miniswng or hybrid
MRVL A semiconductor and 2014 pick about to clear the 50 DMA. Risk to 15 good for swing if holds clears 15.71 ( a 2 ATR risk)
TEX Big move and confirmed 2-day brick wall bottom. Risk now is today’s low and like to see it hold over 40.00
CCL Cleared the 50 DMA and stopped at the 10 DMA. If clears the 10 DMA at 39.03 like for a swing against the 50 DMA
SPWR confirmed phase change with a move over 32.89 taking out the 10 DMA and a risk to 31.70
GOOG Another one was reluctant to buy on a 30 minute OR so now, either a ORR or continuation over 532
NFLX Cleared the 50 DMA so an ORR against 360.67 is good
P In as a hybrid swing which means expect a raised stop and a 1.5 ATR first target. If basing, then has to clear 25.87 fill a gap then keep going to the moving averages.
AMPE Many of you missed the entry so now, look for an ORR against the 200 DMA
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
OXY Unless this clears 96.34 I am looking for a long term short. Inside day-like under the 50 DMA and today’s low-Target is for this to break 83.22 and head further south-way down the road.
JOY 2 inside days under the 50 DMA like under today’s low with a risk to over 59.00. See move to 55.50 as possible
Bye For Now!
