Most notable for Tuesday is that the Small Caps or Russell 2000 had an inside day (when the range of the day, high to low, is within the range of the day before). This interprets as a pause, which I find interesting as the other indexes S&P 500, NASDAQ and Dow all took out Monday highs only to close below. And that’s the type of sleuthing this market now requires, especially ahead of the release of the FED minutes tomorrow. Intense sleuthing is necessary when the market stops at the highs to look around. We investors try to figure out whether the pause is to smell the roses and move on or to retreat into hibernation after too much sun exposure.
S&P 500 (SPY) Low volume everything intact but at the ready should selling come in under 166.50 Subscribers: Positive pivots in all indexes. S1 and today’s low line up
Russell 2000 (IWM) Inside day. Low volume. Good clue to see which way today’s range breaks tomorrow
Dow (DIA) The weekly Bollinger Band continues to rise-and with today’s close right on that number, certainly one to watch for a hold or failure of 153.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Today’s low, like in the other sectors, is a good point to watch.
ETFs:
GLD Defended and held 130.50 Monday and had an inside day today.
XLF (Financials) At 20.00 our swing position long from April was a good place to lighten up. Keeping a core long though, as unless this breaks the 50 DMA, a correction will look more like noise.
IBB (Biotechnology) Held the fast moving average with a bounce. If 179 level holds never count this one out completely.
SMH (Semiconductors) 38.00 is a retracement to the channel breakout on the monthly chart. Subscribers: 2 days under pivots so might be a good place to reenter if can clear 38.80
XRT (Retail) Negated the bearish candle from last week which is why confirmations are smart and necessary
IYT (Transportation) Under 116 expect some more correction here.
IYR (Real Estate) Got to the tippy top of the weekly Bollinger Band. Like all the other leading sectors, a rest would not be the worst thing in the world if you missed this last boat.
USO (US Oil Fund) 34.50 point to clear
OIH (Oil Services) After taking out the 2012 and recent 2013 high, a slight rest with 45.00 near-term support
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Until the FED minutes are released, hard to predict. But, looking at phase, hanging tough in the accumulation one
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Took a rest but still above a key trendline. Subscribers: A possible slingshot high but would have to confirm that.
XHB (Homebuilders) Needs to clear 32.55.
UUP (Dollar Bull) No island top since the gap to 22.88 was filled. Once above that area, the move up should continue
UNG (United States Natural Gas Fund) Confirmed bullish phase
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
**NOTE: New and Old Subscribers: I do not include on the list 1. Anything with a weekly or daily RSI over 92 2. Anything within 4 days of reporting earnings 3. Anything with a risk over 1 ATR from its current close 4. Anything with only one day under the Floor Trader Pivots (unless specifically noted. 5. Anything with a potential slingshot or brick wall high (new 60 day high, close in the bottom 25% of the intraday range.)
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
TPX Long on the opening range reversal ½ position and now this needs to clear R1 48.07 for an add
PM Landed on the 50 DMA and now, like that R1 and today’s high line up
LRCX Inside day.n47.73 low to hold and has to clear today’s high and R1 which line up
BEAM 4 days under pivots but holding the 10 DMA. 68.00 a good point to hold and must clear 68.87 R1. Also note the slingshot high at 69.78. That too must clear
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
LNKD 182.49 good place to hold now although we exited when it could not close above 185. Will keep eyes on this
MJN Improved to a condition 1 as long as 80.00 holds.
PX Opening range reversal is the only way I would re enter a long now to control risk to 115
HOT Cleared 68.00 now a point of support
FNP Inside day. 22.25 a good risk
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
THC Over R1 at 45.56 good risk to the 50 DMA
Phase Change:
AWAY Closed just shy of the 50 DMA. To confirm has to clear 31.45 as well and hold 30.80
HCA Inside day with a neutral slope on the overhead 50 DMA.
FDO Cleared the 10 DMA and now has to clear R1 64.47. Have a starter position against today’s low
AAPL confirmed phase change to recovery with an inside day
SLW Had an inside day therefore neither confirmed the slingshot low nor did it break the lows of yesterday
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
VMW Inside day. 77.13 good risk and under 75.75 could see move down to 72.00 if market corrects
CTSH 65.00 max risk and could see move down to 62.00 or lower
AOL Inside day mar risk 37.90 and could see move down to 35.50 or lower
Category 6: N/A
Bye for Now!
