S&P 500 confirmed the breakaway gap with a relatively healthy digestion day-shown perfectly with a doji candle if you are a fan of Japanese Candlesticks. That’s SPY.
NASDAQ, not to scare anyone, could have posted a reversal candle only the volume was so light, it would take confirmation with a second close under Wednesday’s low. So, let’s wait and see.
The Russell 2000s closed under the 50 DMA so back to an unconfirmed warning phase. Finally, the Dowtested and held 166.
Plus, when you read below, the diversity among the sectors remains startling.
We just entered another round of wondering: Will the bough break and the cradle fall or is the kid alright?
S&P 500 (SPY) Has to hold above 190.50 Subscribers: Positive Pivots QQQ Negative in DIA IWM
Russell 2000 (IWM) Tomorrow if an up day will come as a relief to many bulls
Dow (DIA) Close to the highs at 167.29, but has to get there-166 minor support
Nasdaq (QQQ) If this was a reversal candle, then we still have to see a close under 90.64 then a break of 90. Otherwise, like with IWM, could have been nothing more than digestion
XLF (Financials) Inside day-no major concerns at this point
SMH (Semiconductors) New high close-yay Semis!
IYT (Transportation) Looks like strong follow through on its breakaway gap.
IBB (Biotechnology) Similar analysis to QQQ
XRT (Retail) Back under the moving averages and so opposite of say, transportation. The Angel-Transportation sector. The Devil-Retail.
IYR (Real Estate) Still strong
ITB (US Home Construction) A definite possible reversal candle
USO (US Oil Fund) What a correction looks like
XLE (Energy) Tight compression last 4 days
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Nice move into resistance
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLTs The energizer bunny that one day will die
PHO (Power Shares Water Resources) confirmed bullish Phase if today’s low holds
UUP (Dollar Bull) Cleared 21.50
FXI (China Large Cap Fund) Cleared the 200 DMA for an unconfirmed phase change to accumulation
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Subscribers: Has to clear 41.07 on a weekly closing
JO (Coffee) Subscribers: Held March lows and possible slingshot low if confirms
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha) N/A
Category 2: (Pipeline)N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
SPWR Cleared 33 now has to hold 32.00
TXT Sitting on the 10 and 50 DMA-if holds 38.76 like for swing trade since this has cleared the 80 monthly moving average
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
SWI Held the 200 DMA. If holds 38.80 area then could see move to 41-42 next
BZH 19.95 clears the 200 DMA with a risk to around 19.50
KSS Cleared the 200 DMA with an inside day. if holds 52.95 then like for a new swing move to 58-59 level
YUM Long with a close 1.5 ATR target with now support to hold today’s low
GS Have ½ position and will add over today’s high and R1 or get out under 158.90
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-N/A
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots.. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day’s lows
LNKD Has break S1 and today’s low with a risk for swing to over the 50 DMA or 166.84 for a mini can find a setup like perhaps today’s high
DE Risk against the 50 DMA at 91.63 if beaks todays low and S1
Bye For Now!
