Semiconductors (my absolute favorite sector for 2013 and one I have made no secret about) rocked out today, confirming a breakout over a channel that goes back over 11 years! Will the trend continue? All signs point to yes; but, nothing goes straight up which means, new buy opportunities on corrections should emerge. And the rest of the market? Textbook runaway gap-what more can I say? Of course the relative strength is gaining as are the overbought conditions. However, it does seem as though the move has been almost too orderly as if a melt up needs to occur before we can even begin to think about a top in place. Of course, a nasty gap down can change that. For now, keep following the sectors that have room and mainly, watch for any sign of flights to safety (like in long bonds).
S&P 500 (SPY) 161.00 good point to hold with 164 target Subscribers: Pivots positive in all indexes
Russell 2000 (IWM) 97-98.00 reasonable target it holds 95.00
Dow (DIA) 152-53 resistance
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) One day rest Tuesday and back in business today. 74.00 remains a target. Subscribers: 71.91 gap low from Friday
ETFs:
GLD 141.50 is now a good place to watch for a hold. With today’s gap higher, it seems GLD is attracted to the overhead 50 DMA
XLF (Financials) 19.38 overhead resistance Subscribers: Got pretty close to target of 5 ATRs at 19.38
IBB (Biotechnology) Held the support with a meager bounce.
SMH (Semiconductors) You’re Unbelievable!
XRT (Retail) Still going.
IYT (Transportation) 116 target
IYR (Real Estate) Where do these all stop? No matter. Let’s just wait for the signs and have fun!
USO (US Oil Fund) The inside day led to a rally. 34.86 next resistance
OIH (Oil Services) 45.12 is the 2013 high Subscribers: Say hello to the 80 monthly moving average if it stays firm
XLE (Energy) After a new 2013 high, inside day.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Took a rest but does not look done. Subscribers: Like over 62.20
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) 60.00 resistance Subscribers: Since I was long OIH, UNG and this, exited under 60.00 but still looks good
UUP (Dollar Bull) Watching that 200 weekly moving average like a hawk
UNG (United States Natural Gas Fund) Subscribers: Inside day with 21.66 the 50 DMA to clear
SGG (Sugar ETF) Subscribers: Still resting if holds 61.76
FXI (China) Subscribers: 3 ATRs in this one
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
**NOTE: New and Old Subscribers: I do not include on the list 1. Anything with a weekly or daily RSI over 92 2. Anything within 4 days of reporting earnings 3. Anything with a risk over 1 ATR from its current close 4. Anything with only one day under the Floor Trader Pivots (unless specifically noted. 5. Anything with a potential slingshot or brick wall high (new 60 day high, close in the bottom 25% of the intraday range.)
**NOTE: And a stock from recent list no longer here is might still be in play, but not setup for a new entry
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
HES Like now over R1 and today’s high with risk today’s low
IGT Inside day but has to clear R1 17.48. Small ATR but good volume and has cleared the 200 weekly moving average. Tight risk under 17.20
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
LVS Held the 10 DMA at 56.60 now a good risk point with this looking poised over R1 57.32
CVX Inside day. Has to clear 123.72 and hold today’s low conservatively. Has some overhead at 125 but not firm since on new highs
NTAP Reports May 21st. 36.00 some overhead resistance to clear.
BDX Had an opening range reversal and now needs to clear today’s high and R1 to keep moving
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
JPM confirmed phase change back to bullish with max risk 48.75 iof gets a reversal to control risk.
AAPL Inside day Resistance 469.95 and has to hold 458
AWAY Possible slingshot low which needs confirmation and will happen if clears R1 29.18
SWC Still long against today’s low
OXY Inside day and correction for 2-days. 88.35 good risk and clear R1 and 89.95
STLD Far from the risk point now so only like an ORR
PM Now has to clear the 10 DMA 94.77 to keep going
FB Tested and held the 50 DMA making today’s low max risk. But there remains a slingshot high at 29.07 to think about.
AEM Brick wall bottom. Should hold 30.50 and see 34.00 next
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
AGN 103.50 now resistance and could see 102. 53 then 100.
CRM Reports May 23 42.58 tight risk with a move under 42.00 good confirm could see 41.00 or lower
Bye for Now!
