Happy Veteran’s Day! In keeping with bank holidays, the market was quiet all around with pockets of pain and pleasure. The indices that came into Monday’s session with inside day ranges from last Thursday began the day slightly higher than the high price from Friday and then pretty much chopped around and consolidated for the rest of the session. However, with a full day back on Tuesday and perhaps some volume, the turnaround in the Dow and S&P 500 should help the cause of the Russells and NASDAQ which are teetering on the fast moving average. Let’s put it this way, the market needs the volume to the upside by the now 2 leading indices, otherwise, volume to the downside in the other two, could bring back the sellers all around.
S&P 500 (SPY) Last Thursday’s high is important 177.64. Subscribers: Positive Pivots in all
Russell 2000 (IWM) Last Thursday’s high is important 109.81, or keep eyes on 109 area to hold up.
Dow (DIA) Back to the top of the channel-moment of truth.
Nasdaq (QQQ) 82.70 real big area for this to clear and hold above
ETFs:
XLF (Financials) Interesting doji and above Friday’s action. Pause for higher unless it breaks 20.67
SMH (Semiconductors) Inside day on the 50 DMA. Another piece of the puzzle-Under Friday’s low will not be perceived well.
XRT (Retail) Strong group with lots of earnings coming up here this week
IYT (Transportation) Until it clears 126.40, still a bit vulnerable
IBB (Biotechnology) A push above the 50 DMA will help this group a lot. Otherwise, a favorite area for a short
IYR (Real Estate) Inside day. Subscribers: Above Friday’s high will put this back above the trendline that I showed on last week’s video and quite possibly give us a low risk buy
XHB (Homebuilders) Needs another push here to close above the 50 DMA and improve in phase
GLD Inside day and approaching oversold
OIH (Oil Services) New highs for 2013
XLE (Energy) Sitting on the fast moving average
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Confirmed back to bullish phase
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) There’s the evidence market becoming less concerned with tapering talk
IFN (India Fund) If Monday’s low holds, could be a bounce off of the 50 DMA
EWG (Germany) Looking good again
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha) N/A
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
CNX Over 36.65 will look a lot better and has to hold 35.70 or just under the 50 DMA
FCX Like more for a mini or hybrid with an inside day. Has to hold 36.07 and clear 36.67 R1.
MET Inside day after big move last Friday. S1 a good placed to risk against with a move over 48.80 area reason to see another push up for hybrid type trade
LVS over 71.00 looks better with risk then to around S1 for hybrid to swing trade
SPWR 32.00 support to hold with a move over 32.75 area good for continuation. Cleared the 80 monthly if holds up
JBLU Over 7.76 clears recent highs after an inside day which means could still have a lot more. Risk now is 7.44
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
PLD Inside day right under the 200 DMA. Over Friday’s high 39.47, also clears the 200 DMA with good risk for swing to Under today’s low
GGP Unconfirmed phase change to accumulation. Today’s low has to hold and like this for a swing since clearing the 80 monthly moving average
CVX Confirmed bullish phase today. Over Thursday’s high will like a lot 121.88 with risk to the 50 DMA 120.96
IGT Improved in phase to an unconfirmed warning phase which means that after Friday’s brick wall pattern this is setup. 17.80 is the 200 DMA and 17.55 max risk with either a reversal or breakout on watch
C Watch for today’s low to hold and a push over 50.50 to keep this going.
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
STRZA If breaks S1 and today’s low, then could see drop to the 200 DMA
TEL If cannot clear 52.15, then like for a short to see 51.00 or lower
REGN If cannot clear 284.85, then still looks poised to drop maybe to the 200 DMA
Bye For Now
