Evening Watch List for November 18th

Mish Schneider | November 17, 2015

How is The Market Like the Hudson River?

The lower Hudson River is actually at tidal estuary. The Mahican (Iroquois) name “muh-he-kun-ne-tuk” means “the river that flows both ways.”

Strong tides make parts of New York Harbor difficult and dangerous to navigate.

Are you already nodding your head in recognition as to why this info is my lead tonight?

Tuesday, NASDAQ 100 had a golden cross (when the 50 crosses above the 100 Daily Moving Average). The Regional Banks ETF (KRE) had a golden cross last week. That puts these 2 instruments well ahead of the pack with both in Bullish Phases.

Yet those Bullish phases do not tell the whole story.

So, NASDAQ is bullish. However, it closed only marginally up and that is only because of the All-Stars Netflix and Facebook closing well into the green.

Solar City SCTY, on the other side of the river (also in the NASDAQ 100) sold off another 5.5% Tuesday. For the year this has fallen over 50% from its highs.

Are the FB and NFLX upstream currents enough to counteract the downstream currents of others like SCTY that have sunk like an insignificant tugboat trying to navigate the NY Harbor during a rainstorm?

Looking at Regional Banks, KRE, sure it is in a bullish phase. Does that tell that whole story? If you look at the largest bank holding in KRE Bank of the Ozarks (OZRK) that is trading near the 2015 highs.

On the flip side is the S&P 500 Financial ETF (XLF). Sitting between a recovery and an accumulation phase, the big banks like Goldman Sachs are pretty far from their 2015 highs and struggling to stay above their 65-week moving averages.

Since I love to blame the Federal Reserve lately and their untimely rate raising discourse-why should I hold back now? Talk about a “river that flows both ways,” the US dollar, robust like Tall Ships on the Hudson, has thrown many overboard (such as commodities) hoping to be flung a lifesaver.

Oil, gold, steel, copper are all fighting to stay afloat. The Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC) sits at the bottom of the river along with the American Eels (they really do live at the bottom of the Hudson River).

Difficult to navigate? Just ask the Russell 2000s (IWM) what he thinks. When Granddad IWM looks in the mirror he sees “Wimpy.”

When NASDAQ looks in the mirror, he sees “Popeye the Sailor Man.”

S&P 500 (SPY) Tried the 200 DMA but couldn’t muster enough wind to close above it. 205 now the pivotal point to hold Subscribers: Positive Pivots in all

Russell 2000 (IWM) Unconfirmed phase change back to bearish with 114.75 pivotal, 112 support and 116.76 overhead resistance

Dow (DIA) Like SPY could not clear the 200 DMA. 175.80 pivotal

Nasdaq (QQQ) 113 overhead resistance. 108.20 best support to hold

Volatility Index (VIX) 22.04 big number if clears

XLF (Financials) Has to clear 24.20 the 200 DMA to be good

KRE (Regional Banks) 44.80 resistance with support now at 42.90

SMH (Semiconductors) A move over 54.22 is best

IYT (Transportation) Still in a bear phase, has to close/clear over 145.60

IBB (Biotechnology) At least Big Bro held over the 50 DMA for a confirmed Recovery Phase-eyes here

XRT (Retail) Did not confirm the reversal bottom at all. Granny is even thinner than Olive Oyl.

IYR (Real Estate) Hard to read

ITB (US Home Construction) Cleared 27.70 then closed near the lows of the day at 27.42-will be very interested to see what happens next

GLD (Gold Trust) Broke 103.43-actually opened just below it and then continued to sell off. New multi-year low

USO (US Oil Fund) Held Monday’s low 12.81 max risk if can stay over 13.00

UNG (US NatGas Fund) Holding the one day pattern reversal low from 9.35. Needs to close over 10.00 not just trade there

TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Slammed with the other solars

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) 120 has to clear on a closing basis

UUP (Dollar Bull) Not even overbought

CORN (Corn) Subscribers: Has my interest

BAL (Cotton) Subscribers: Inside day over the 50 DMA

JO (Coffee) Subscribers: Need cash to clear 120

***Market Tone: Short-term Negative 1, Intermediate-Term Neutral, Long-Term Positive 6

NOTE: *All starred picks are from the automated list of picks (which now includes short picks!) denote that it has one or more of the 18 chart patterns we have used on the radar screen. For example, inside day, 2 days under floor trader pivots, phase change, brick wall or return to the 10 DMA, etc.

Tap here to view the September Live Coaching recording:
"How To Vet the Evening Watch Picks"

Longs:

ABBV
AMGN**
ARMH**
BA**
BBD**
BDN**
CHKP**
CNO**
CVRR**
CXO**
DOV
ECL**
EXPE
FB
FBHS**
IR
MUR**
NOW
PANW**
PBF**
PSX
QQQ
RLGY
SFM
SPLK
SPY
TRIP
WDAY**
XLE
YELP