Mixing metaphors, a pocket full of posies comes to mind describing Thursday’s session for once again, pockets of stocks well outperformed the S&P 500 while others “all fell down.”
Wynn Resorts (WYNN) sank after reports of money laundering. Shame on you Steve! GoPro Inc. (GPRO) fell over 9%. The Energy sector and some of its holdings fared really well as cold and snow continue to grip the Northeast.Homebuilders, after 6 days of compression, flew and Intel (INTC) made a few folks happy!
The indices languished near the highs though not too shabbily rose from the early morning low prints to close up on the day. The Russell 2000s notably, revived from the nearly dead posting the greatest percentage gain, and clearing a first point of resistance 116.25.
As a week of sheep grazing, wolves prowling and gift horses prancingcomes to an end, everything we anticipated happily unfolded. We managed to keep our long core positions by giving the trades and market room while trading anything new much tighter with shorter timeframes.
By the way, for those who might wonder how these metaphors relate to the stock market, I quote John Lennon after reporters’ assigned meaning to “I Am The Walrus.”
“We’ve learned over the years that if we wanted we could write anything that just felt good or sounded good and it didn’t necessarily have to have any particular meaning to us.”
And that my friends remains my goal-offer relevancy, hope you find some meaning and make you smile!
S&P 500 (SPY) Eked out a new high close Subscribers: Positive Pivots in all
Russell 2000 (IWM) Cleared 116.25 but not 116.75-although vote for most likely to succeed now
Dow (DIA) Another new high close
Nasdaq (QQQ) Not quite a new high close-hope it’s not like almost surviving an operation!
XLF (Financials) 24.15 needs to clear
KRE (Regional Banks) Inside day and good close over 40.00
SMH (Semiconductors) Intel helped this to new highs.
IYT (Transportation) Lagging but holding
IBB (Biotechnology) Quiet still
XRT (Retail) Poised and poised
IYR (Real Estate) Continues to hold 75.00 for dear life
ITB (US Home Construction) Second time I’ve pointed out 6 days of compression this week (SPY the other day) and whammo!
GLD (Gold Trust) Inside day and starting to get more bullish
GDX (Gold Miners) Like GLD-ditto
USO (US Oil Fund) 29.00 the point to clear-time to think commodities??
XLE (Energy) Might as well wait for the 50 DMA-grazed it but closed below
UNG (US NatGas Fund) Closed above 200 DMA
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Subscribers: Decided to wait for a phase change
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLTs 120 pivotal area and the 50 DMA to hold 118.27 (notice the slope moving up everyday?)
EWW (Mexico) Subscribers: Big day yesterday-today inside day
SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: Eyes here again to see if it can cross the 50 DMA
JO (Coffee) Subscribers: Unconfirmed phase change to bullish, then tanks to Distribution
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: N/A
Category 2: N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy an opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
MPC Needs to hold around 95.00 and clear 95.59 for day to miniswing
PEP Flagging with support at 97.54 and over 98.62 could see more upside day to mini
FDX 11 days of a range and compression-great daytrade if clears 172.88 in the first 5 minutes of the session
RHP 8 days of a range and compression-great daytrade if clears 50.57 in the first 5 minutes of the session
Category 4: N/A
Phase Change:
FNSR Reports December 4th Been studying the low open, clearing pdl the soaring-happened here today. Now, watch for continuation or an ORR
TEX Pushing up against the 50 DMA and has to hold 29.00 clear 30.00-swing
BAX Love this after an inside day under the 200 DMA-that has to clear swing
XOM Big time focus tomorrow as this is rounding at support and now could finally be ready to tackle the 200 DMA and beyond. 95.20 support now
KSS Unconfirmed phase change to bullish-would do a daytrade over today’s highs or a mini for an ORR
CYH Over 47.60 still like with risk for swing
AMZN Expected more upside after crossing the 200 DMA-but definitely worth watching
GLPI Made its whole range in the first 30 minutes. Now, 32.32 point to clear
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
NAV Phase change to Recovery (downgrade). If cannot clear 36.12 then like against 35.67 for a day to mini
NFLX 373.91 a great risk to R1 if this can break under 367.40 then today’s low and S1 day to mini
Category 6:N/A
Best Best wishes for your trading,
Michele Schneider
