The Dow closed on new highs yet didn’t make new intraday highs. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ firmed, still a bit away from their highs. The Russell 2000s nearly doubled the performance of the other 3 percentage wise with a shout out to the 2013 highs ever so close-111.62- and some good accumulation in volume. So, it’s the small caps once again, leading the charge, which is fine by us! The other “tells” cooperated. Real Estate, although still in a bear phase, firmed, Financials soared to new highs and rates dropped a bit. We head into the end of the week stronger, smarter and better off in our P&Ls. Now, my sense is a big blow off rally is coming-question is when. Don’t guess, gauge!
S&P 500 (SPY) 178.50 the 10 DMA support. Subscribers: Positive Pivots in all.
Russell 2000 (IWM) 111.62. Remember my name!
Dow (DIA) Best evidence of a possible blow off coming to a theater near you.
Nasdaq (QQQ) 82.70 was my number. Now it has to clear 83.60 and keep going
XLF (Financials) Nice run to new highs
SMH (Semiconductors) Back in an unconfirmed bullish phase. Subscribers: At the top of the channel I showed you in today’s video.
XRT (Retail) Working it-Has to hold the fast moving average
IYT (Transportation) Holding the 10 DMA
IBB (Biotechnology) New 2013 highs good for $25-30 over time.
IYR (Real Estate) Inside day which leaves me a bit incredulous on whether we can consider this firming action or just a pause before lower prices
XHB (Homebuilders) What I expected after 3 days of digestion. Like a snake, on the move.
GLD Lower but sat there-might be up to its of late tricks-boring to daytrade, a good run to 122 area will get me short
USO (US Oil Fund) Looking for this to fill the gap to 34.60-then reevaluate
OIH (Oil Services) Playing in another world-not cooperating with the other groups-where to go for a short if market corrects again
XLE (Energy) Promising to take out 2013 highs
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Super impressive comeback clearing back over the 50 DMA
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLTs possible slingshot low. Subscribers: Right on the 80 monthly so might be good for a pop
UUP (Dollar Bull) Subscribers: Inside day and interesting here if holds 21.80 for another run-
FXI (China) Subscribers: After missing the slingshot, now with a gap higher clearing the 200 weekly and perhaps the 80 monthly, like this over R1 39.87 with tighter risk to S2 tomorrow
FCG (First Trust ISE Reserve NatGas) Set up perfectly today
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha)N/A
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
TRIP 4 Inside days. Needs to hold today’s low and take out today’s high. I wasn’t planning much trading tomorrow-but I will be all on this one if sets up!
FWLT 2 Inside days. Has to clear today’s highs and the 10 DMA
MCHP Maybe an ORR would be a good daytrade-but for swing, looking for P1.
DRI Like to see this clear 53.88 to keep going with overhead target around 55.00
TXT Maybe an ORR would be a good daytrade-but for swing, looking for P1.
BID like on an ORR better for risk control-looks strong
TEX Back above the 50 DMA-like on an opening range reversal more, but if holds 34.90 that could be a good risk point on strength
USG Inside day against the 200 DMA for a great risk. 27.30 is R1 to clear
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A:
Phase Change:
TOL Cleared the 200 DMA and could be a good one for Friday for day-hybrid swing
IGT Brick wall bottom and held perfectly on the weekly chart. Over 17.40 would try again with stop to under Wednesday’s lows”
JBL Slingshot and on the 200 weekly moving average making today’s low great risk if confirms over 19.54 R1
MTW Would get back in over 19.46 the 200 DMA for a new swing
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
SWK Inside day. Has to break 80.99 and then could see a move down to around 79.00
SCCO A bit oversold on the weekly not the daily. Like for day to mini if cannot clear 26.23 R1
Bye For Now
