This past weekend, we got to see our grandbaby. His room has everything one would think appropriate for a baby’s room: Crib, changing table, diapers, lotions, changes of clothes, bottles, etc. But, if one does not have any idea how to handle a baby, looking around at the accoutrement not knowing what to do with it all, you just might wind up with one unhappy baby on your hands.
That got me thinking about charts and technical signals. Sure, you might follow a good trader into a stock because he/she reports they like the stock, it has volume flow, a breakout, options activity, etc. But before you dutifully follow, I suggest you do this-ask the trader, where the stop is, what the position size should be, what the timeframe of the trade is, and where the profit targets are. If that trader does not have a clear and defined trading plan, guess what-they cannot answer you. And if he/she cannot answer you and you haven’t a clue-you’ve got nothing more than a well-supplied room housing a potentially cranky trade that no matter how much cajoling you give it, just won’t stop going down.
Does that mean that the most knowledgeable moms can guarantee their baby won’t ever cry? Of course not. Does that mean that even the savviest most systematic traders won’t ever lose? No way!
As we head into the Thanksgiving holiday, I would like to give thanks to first, you my readers. Thank you for giving me an outlet to share my thoughts, creativity and trading ideas. Secondly, I would like to give thanks to Marketgauge and our team of traders who share with you a well-defined, repeatable and systematic way of trading in all market conditions that year in and year out, makes us and our subscribers profitable!
Now on to my analysis:
S&P 500 (SPY) Teeny tiny range inside day. Looks like pre-ThanksgivingSubscribers: Positive Pivots in all
Russell 2000 (IWM) Did it!! Closed over 117.80 with an inside day and looks like the gravy now rather than the turkey!
Dow (DIA) Inside day and quiet
Nasdaq (QQQ) New high close
XLF (Financials) Held 24.14 to make a new high close
KRE (Regional Banks) Inside day and has to clear 40.37
SMH (Semiconductors) New highs again
IYT (Transportation) Held 164 with an inside day
IBB (Biotechnology) Good move with the high 302.98 resistance
XRT (Retail) New highs why reversal candles always need another day to confirm
IYR (Real Estate) Holding 76 marginally
ITB (US Home Construction) 2014 high 26.56
GLD (Gold Trust) 116 the 50 DMA to clear
GDX (Gold Miners) 20.37 now the 50 DMA to clear
USO (US Oil Fund) Probably wise to stay away from until after Thanksgiving or the OPEC meeting
XLE (Energy) Confirmed the recovery phase
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) If gaps over 62.95 worth paying attention to
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Subscribers: One more push over the 50 DMA required
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLTs Closed above the pivotal area at 120 again with 120.46 resistance to clear
UUP (Dollar Bull) Inside day near highs
EWP (Spain) Subscribers: Like this if holds today’s low and the 50 DMA
SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: If holds 41.00 like over 41.71
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: N/A
Category 2: N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy an opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
XRX Inside day like over 13.80 risk 13.50 more mini to swing
IGT If closes November over the 80 monthly average at 16.76, first time since 2008. Inside day needs to clear 17.25 risk 16.94 the 10 DMA
ALK Improved in condition if holds today’s low and clears 55.45 the 10 DMA for a miniswing
YHOO Extended but an inside day that if holds 50.85 the 10 DMA and clears 52.25 good day to miniswing trade
Category 4: N/A
Phase Change:
SCTY Inside day and unconfirmed phase change. Today’s low risk with a move over 56.94 the confirm
FITB Inside day over the 10 DMA and over the 50 DMA-good way to trade the regional banks over 20.43
GLPI Looks ready to move if holds 32.00 and clears 32.65
ONVO Inside day over the 50 DMA-like todays low for risk and a move over 6.72 for entry swing
TEX Further from risk but still worth watching for a day to miniswing
BAX Inside day under the 200 DMA which means better over72.60
CYH Needs to hold 47.25 now and get back over 49.00
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
DTV 86.47 the 50 DMA to stay beneath with risk now at 87.26 the 10 DMA
X Inside day under the 10 DMA needs to break 34.68 with risk to 35.36
Category 6:N/A
Best Best wishes for your trading,
Michele Schneider
