Light volume, digestion of prices, no radical change in the breadth of the market-as predictable ahead of Thanksgiving-or “Thanksgivingukkah”- as are long airport lines, turkey, stuffing and football! An optimist is a person who starts a diet on Thanksgiving Day. So, it seems, are the folks just realizing the market is on new highs.
S&P 500 (SPY) A rising fast moving average now, 179 becomes pivotal. Subscribers: Positive Pivots in all.
Russell 2000 (IWM) 113 now likely with 111 area support near term
Dow (DIA) The rising fast moving average here is 159.15
Nasdaq (QQQ) Hit 4000 then retreated a bit but the ETF new highs
XLF (Financials) Yup, new highs!
SMH (Semiconductors) Holding the 50 DMA and when Intel stops getting hit, should be a good place to look for a long
XRT (Retail) Quiet ahead of Black Friday.
IYT (Transportation) 128 support and 129.63 the 2013 highs
IBB (Biotechnology) “New 2013 highs good for $25-30 over time.” Written last Thursday. On Friday it moved up 7.00 into that projected forecast! On Monday it climbed another $3.00 to put this $10.00 in to that predicted target.
IYR (Real Estate) Inside day and looking heavy-at some point this has to catch up or the market will get jittery.
XHB (Homebuilders) 31.00 new area of support to hold
GLD Almost a complete reversal candle but didn’t fit the criteria by the close. For now, more of a short covering rally Subscribers: GDX Slingshot low-like over R1 22.58
USO (US Oil Fund) Opened weaker and if breaks 33.45, could see lower prices. Over 34.10 way better
OIH (Oil Services) “Not cooperating with the other groups-where to go for a short..” From the weekend-now heading closer to support
IFN (India Fund) Inside day. Subscribers: If holds today’s low, good risk against 19.74
FXI (China) No more runaway gap on daily chart, but still in a good short on the weekly chart
FCG (First Trust ISE Reserve NatGas) 20.00 pivotal
VXX Subscribers: Another possible slingshot low if clears 44.94 R1
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha)N/A
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
TEX Long a small position on the opening range reversal. 35.13 now has to hold and the 2013 highs clear
PETM Day to miniswing. If today’s low holds, then good see a move especially if clears R1 74.38
GT Day to miniswing. Has to hold the 50 DMA at 21.93
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
USG Inside day. Fave pick over R1 27.23 if holds now 26.50
TOL If today’s low holds, like this one too for a continuation up.
PCAR Confirmed the phase change back to bullish and not bad one to watch
GGP 3 inside days with today’s low good tight risk and over today’s high good entry point
HFC Long and looking for P1-for daytrade can watch for an ORR
MTW Handily cleared the moving averages-now an ORR preferred
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
FAST Looking heavy again-47.00 is a good tight risk to use.
SWK 81.93 good resistance and under Friday low, could see 75.00
ANF Inside day. Day to miniswing. Cannot clear 34.39 and could see 33.30
FTI If cannot clear 49.80 see this as a possible drop to 44.00 area
Bye For Now
