The time has come for me to take a rest. Strategically planned for the Thanksgiving holiday and the week thereafter, I will return December 8th, refreshed and prepared to see out 2014 while readying for the trades setting up for 2015.
Since we never like to leave our devoted readers and subscribers stranded, you will continue to receive a daily email written by Geoff Bysshe, President of Marketgauge beginning this Sunday, November 30th.
As for the market, my parting recommendation is to follow the sector and group rotations. Seems like the metals and miners might be ripe for a move up and depending upon what OPEC does, watch oil and gas as well. Solar will be impacted by the OPEC decision mainly because cheap gas and oil does not create urgency for solar energy right away. (Remember, perspective is key!)
Black Friday and Cyber Monday could boost retail, technology andtransportation prices further; however, I would take that opportunity to lock in profits in those equities or ETFs rather than look for new longs. Concerning rotation, the Regional Banks ETF (KRE) has great potential.
Interest rates continue to send the message that in spite of the termination of Quantitative Easing in the US, the baton to other countries keeping the juice on gives a low rates everywhere legs.
Think of Keith and me, simultaneously opening up umbrellas on the beach and the smaller ones in our cocktails, while you watch to see if the small caps (IWM) tackle the 2014 high 120.97, a respectable probability if they hold the 117.80 area.
Have a wonderful holiday and week ahead! Thanks so much and bye for now!
S&P 500 (SPY) Digestion near the highs Subscribers: Positive Pivots in IWM QQQ Neutral SPY Slightly negative DIA
Russell 2000 (IWM) New multi month high close
Dow (DIA) Digestion near the highs
Nasdaq (QQQ) Yet another new high close although AAPL looks toppy again if confirms
XLF (Financials) Digestion
KRE (Regional Banks) See this as a big winner in the months to come
SMH (Semiconductors) New highs but a bit tired looking
IYT (Transportation) New high close
IBB (Biotechnology) 294-302.98 new range to break one way or another
XRT (Retail) Intraday went to new highs then closed marginally low-supports the sector/rotation theory
IYR (Real Estate) Holding 76 and liking the rates
ITB (US Home Construction) New multi-month highs then a reversal-25.35 the big support underneath
GLD (Gold Trust) 116 the 50 DMA to clear
GDX (Gold Miners) Cleared the 50 DMA for an unconfirmed phase change to recovery
USO (US Oil Fund) I told you to stay away-new low close
XLE (Energy) Confirmed the recovery phase and then it didn’t
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Subscribers: Could be coiling to clear the 50 DMA but might as well wait for it
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLTs Broke out from consolidation going back to late October
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
EQR A full month of consolidation which breaks out over 71.00 for a day to mini
Category 2: N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy an opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
Focus List: TSLA CRM PG RHP STZ
IGT If closes November over the 80 monthly average at 16.76, first time since 2008. Now 2 Inside days needs to clear 17.20 risk 17.00 the 10 DMA
ALK Good day and now needs to clear 56.16 to continue to the recent highs and beyond, plus hold today’s low
ZMH Improved in condition to a one. If holds above 110, like over new highs 111.97
Category 4:N/A
Phase Change:
CIEN Recovery phase. 15.50 is swing risk and if good should clear 17 and keep going
DE Reports tomorrow before market and looks likes over 88.00 after an inside day gets it over the 200 DMA
FB A move over the 50 DMA at 76.14 should be good for a day to miniswing
ONVO 2 Inside days over the 50 DMA-like 6.30 for risk and a move over 6.72 for entry swing
TEX ½ position swing long but will get out under today’s low
BAX Still like this if clears 72.61 the 200 DMA and holds the low of the day if does
CYH Needs to hold 47.25 now and get back over 49.00
Shorts: Focus List APA WLL IBM GOOG under S1
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
WYNN big sell off so now look for an ORR or continuation under 176
Category 6: N/A
Best Best wishes for your trading,
Michele Schneider
