NASDAQ breaks 4000! The Russell 2000s reached 113.00-the resistance we expected. The Dow and S&P 500 make new highs and retreat from them by the close. The Real Estate Sector ETF weakens again. WHAT? That’s not bullish! Yet Simon Property Group, the largest holding in that sector, rose by 1.00%. Homebuilders ran up 2.2% in its current Bull Phase. As we head closer to the holiday, the market divergence becomes more prevalent. Perhaps we should not expect any clarity until next week. Perhaps, we should just head to our relatives’ houses early and let the foreign markets take over. That’s what I’m doing. The next daily will be available over the weekend ahead of Monday’s open. In the meantime-safe travels everyone! Happy Thanksgiving!
S&P 500 (SPY) Digestion and that’s without consuming mass quantities of turkey. Subscribers: Positive Pivots in all.
Russell 2000 (IWM) “113 now likely”-yes! 111 area support near term
Dow (DIA) The rising fast moving average here is 159.50
Nasdaq (QQQ) AAPL got going as per the seasonal percentage of that happening.
XLF (Financials) Inside day on the highs
SMH (Semiconductors) If today’s low holds, looks like we could see a resumption of the move higher
XRT (Retail) 88.40 recent 2013 highs
IYT (Transportation) 128.75 support and 129.63 the 2013 highs
IBB (Biotechnology) Inside day and 10.00 into the projected 25-30 range move off of 213.00
IYR (Real Estate) 62.99 is the 60 day low.
XHB (Homebuilders) 32.50 some channel resistance
GLD Inside day.
USO (US Oil Fund) Opened weaker and if breaks 33.45, could see lower prices. Over 34.00 way better
OIH (Oil Services) Confirmed warning phase
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Came back over the 50 DMA
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) The 50 DMA overhead in TLT
FXI (China) Inside day
FCG (First Trust ISE Reserve NatGas) 20.00 pivotal
VXX Subscribers: Confirmed the slingshot low but with overhead resistance at the 10 DMA
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha) N/A
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
TEX Inside day. Long a small position. 35.25 now has to hold and the 2013 highs clear
TRIP Has to clear 88.00 now and hold 87.00 for a tight trade
HCA Unconfirmed phase change back to bullish if the 50 DMA 45.27 holds.
HUN Nice pop over the 10 DMA-prefer an ORR but on the monthly and weekly, looks good longer term
RCL After an inside day, nice move today. If 43.55 holds, could see another leg to new highs. Day to miniswing
GT Inside day. Has to hold the 10 DMA at 21.63 and the 50 DMA is 21.93, even better to hold
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
USG The 50 DMA 27.55 the point to clear and has to hold today’s low-nearest risk
GGP Moved up into resistance so prefer an ORR against the 50 and 200 DMAs now
CENX Inside day against the converging major moving averages. Like to see 8.95 clear.
SGEN Unconfirmed warning phase and inside day. The 10 DMA 41.09 good risk and has to clear 42.00
TS Super beat up RSI on the 200 DMA so if it comes to life, considering it crossed the 80 monthly this year, watch especially over today’s high
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
FAST Looking heavy again-47.00 is a good tight risk to use.
Bye For Now
