I watched for 4 scenarios to develop as the week began. First, that the Russell 2000s would recover, clearing resistance. That did happen although it still needs to clear the fast moving average. Secondly, that the Real Estate and Homebuilder groups would firm. That also occurred with resistance at its fast moving averages. Real Estate remains in a recovery phase yet it too hasn’t cleared the fast moving average. Third, that the Financial group would take out overhead resistance at 20.80. That hasn’t happened, but it did hold at unchanged from last Friday’s close. Finally, that the interest rates would not firm. Basically, they too closed around unchanged from Friday’s close. When one analyzes the four scenarios and their results, then adds the Retail, Transportation, and Energy groups to the mix, it appears the market wants higher, although, correspondingly relaying that there are significant pockets of weakness around.
S&P 500 (SPY) Other than rich relative strength indicators on the weekly chart, looks good Subscribers: Pivots Positive in all
Russell 2000 (IWM) Gave us the relief we needed. Now needs to clear 110.18 and hold 109.00
Dow (DIA) 155 important point to hold with the peak high in September looming overhead
Nasdaq (QQQ) Inside day, which means the range break here will be telling overall
XLF (Financials) Has to clear 20.78 to look better
SMH (Semiconductors) 40.73 is where you want to see this hold with Monday’s low 40.75
XRT (Retail) New highs
IYT (Transportation) New highs
IBB (Biotechnology) 2010-2013 will go down in history for this group. Now, not the place to look for razzle dazzle.
IYR (Real Estate) Subscribers: Like this over 67.05
XHB (Homebuilders) 30.00 now the support area to hold.
GLD Back in a bear phase
USO (US Oil Fund) Oversold-best I can say for it
OIH (Oil Services) Back to looking good
XLE (Energy) 87.62 highs to clear
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Inside day in the TLTs
UUP (Dollar Bull) Unconfirmed phase change back to bearish
IFN (India Fund) 21.16 is a good high to clear
EWG (Germany) Negated the possibility of an island top-good news
FXI (China) Inside day
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
HD Reports November 19th. Good correction to the 10 DMA making today’s low good risk and a move over 77.00 then R1 and today’s high compelling for a miniswing
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
TEX New 2013 high close. Not overbought. Perhaps a reversal now for a daytrade add.
MAS No profit or loss here. Just an inside day. Like to see today’s low hold to get this going. Then, can see a move too 22.00
USG Had an opening range reversal, which was the better risk. Now, as a new trade, if 27.85 now closest support holds, could see 2013 highs and beyond.
CCI inside day. Just under the 10 DMA. Like it over R1 and today’s high. Risk 74.00 for swing
AAPL over 528.45 looks better after the big red candle and now, has to hold the 10 DMA 524.25
GE More miniswing here, but risk is good to today’s low and cold still see upside since recently cleared the 80 monthly.
GS Good day there and now if clear 163.35 should push it to 167 and beyond, Risk is S1 or around 162.00
ZMH Prefer an Opening Range Reversal against the 10 DMA, and then could see new 2013 highs and beyond
IR 3 Inside days-now can use S1 67.37 for risk and see if this has legs
TXT Long for a swing position with a stop that will most likely move up to under S2. For now, an ORR would be preferable and like to see this turn into a longer term swing trade.
Category 4: (Rip Tide)N/A
Phase Change:
PLD kept ½ position for a swing trade to see if this can get to then clear 2013 highs
PM Cleared the 200 DMA for an unconfirmed accumulation phase. Good risk to under today’s low
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
ACAD Risk today’s high and if it breaks 21.63 could see move down to 16.00
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots.. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day’s lows
CELG Has to beak S1 and not clear back over the 50 DMA if does so
Bye For Now
