How I see new highs in the Dow:
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This is not going to be your 2013 “buy anything, look smart, then crow about it” market going into 2014.If you are clueless on sector/group rotation and asset allocation, I suggest you study up.
S&P 500 (SPY) So, how come this didn’t make new highs you might be asking yourself? Don’t take that as a sign of weakness. Subscribers: Positive Pivots in all except IWM-neutral
Russell 2000 (IWM) Noisy, scary, but at the end of the day, held Tuesday’s low. 110.18 remains the place to clear
Dow (DIA) Incredible and strange brew here. Heading to the top of a channel.
Nasdaq (QQQ) Like to see 82.50 hold now in what looks like sideways consolidation.
XLF (Financials) 20.39 support and has to clear 20.70. Subscribers: Technically, this gapped higher over R1 then had an opening range reversal. With some follow through will look better
SMH (Semiconductors) Back over 41.00 will be hard to argue with
XRT (Retail) Could be a reversal candle, but has to confirm that Thursday
IYT (Transportation) Could be a reversal candle, but has to confirm that Thursday
IBB (Biotechnology) Can’t say I haven’t warned you enough on this having had its day. Big drop under the 50 DMA.
IYR (Real Estate) Inside day. Subscribers: Like this over 66.27
XHB (Homebuilders) 30.00 now the support area to hold. Subscribers: Over 30.65, will get in.
GLD Seems this has fallen out of favor to trade
USO (US Oil Fund) A relief rally which happens when an instrument gets too oversold.
OIH (Oil Services) 50.26 and above gives this promise
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Heading to the 50 DMA
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Tried to close over the 50 day moving average, but did not.
UUP (Dollar Bull) Unconfirmed phase change back to Bearish-yo-yo
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha) N/A
Category 2: (Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
HD Reports November 19th. 75.64 the 50 DMA good risk and a move over 76.84 and today’s high compelling for a miniswing.
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
FITB Our first big swing trade in that our risk is greater than usual, but so will our hold time be if this works out. Inside day.
ATI Needs to clear 34.13 once and for all with risk 33.50
USG Over today’s high will be the trigger and the risk is under S1
CCI Took profits and will ride the rest out. However, over 77.22, good place to add.
P Reports November 18th. Inside day. Over 28.26 will take this to new highs for a more miniswing trade to around 30.00
Category 4: (Rip Tide)N/A
Phase Change:
IGT Fave for tomorrow if it holds 19.35 the 50 DMA. Like on reversal or breakout with risk as mentioned the 50 DMA
CCUR Been tracking this stock. Like it over 7.47 for a swing. Today it had an unconfirmed phase change to recovery
BZH Unconfirmed phase change to warning, but will ike over R1 with risk to under 17.69
K Confirmed phase change to accumulation. Like against the 200 DMA fdor a new sing if clears 63.65
CVX Phase change to bullish. If holds around 120, it will hold 3 moving averages. The has to clear 122.01
CCJ Unconfirmed phase change to recovery. 18.70 looks like a good max risk
MTH same group as BZH-if clears 44.25 the 200 DMA good swing trade with risk to the low that day it clears it.
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
Post Earning: WFM If gaps under 50 DMA worth a look
REGN Unconfirmed phase change to warning which means it has to stay below the 50 DMA to set up for a good low risk short
Bye For Now
