Haiku by Mish
One stock said to an
other while making new highs:
this market is whacked!
S&P 500 (SPY) 173.60 is the 2013 high which we got really close to by end of day. Now, perhaps a bit of exuberance-expect a digestion day but won’t rule out a melt up either. Subscribers: Positive pivots
Russell 2000 (IWM) New highs and not on blow out type volume so should be good to go
Dow (DIA) Closed slightly red but away from the 50 DMA. Unless, that level breaks, still looks ok.
Nasdaq (QQQ) Back in 2000, the last gasp high before a correction was 84.94-not ruling that out either
XLF (Financials) 20.93 is the 2013 highs to clear
SMH (Semiconductors) New highs and a bullish engulfing pattern. See semis run-run semis run!
XRT (Retail) 83.24 is the 2013 high to clear to keep this going
IYT (Transportation) 121.00 is the 2013 high
IBB (Biotechnology) Confirmed bullish phase. If clears 208.50 like better. Subscribers: Still a couple of names here to look at for shorts
IYR (Real Estate) 67.77 is the 200 DMA
XHB (Homebuilders) Cleared those gorgeous converging moving averages. Subscribers: If 29.68 holds we will look here for a long above the moving averages
GLD Back to eyeballing the 50 DMA as resistance
OIH (Oil Services)New 2013 highs
XLE (Energy) Inside day
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) I have no position in the ETF, but this still excites the heck out of me to watch
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLT continued its accelerated run over the 50 DMA
EWG (Germany) New highs
FXI (China) Subscribers: Adding over today’s highs and R1 makes sense. China will release third-quarter GDP overnight. Its result will be very important for tomorrow's trading. Economists estimate that GDP will rise to 7.8% from a year ago, up from a 7.5% rate in the second quarter. Chinese retail sales and industrial production will also be released.
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
**NOTE: New and Old Subscribers: I do not include on the list 1. Anything with a weekly or daily RSI over 92 2. Anything within 4 days of reporting earnings 3. Anything with a risk over 1 ATR from its current close 4. Anything with only one day under the Floor Trader Pivots (unless specifically noted. 5. Anything with a potential slingshot or brick wall high (new 60 day high, close in the bottom 25% of the intraday range.
**NOTE: With the recent run in the market and tomorrow being Friday, not a lot of picks-good day to enjoy how well we have navigated through recent events!
NEW FOLKS: Last Live Coaching from September goes into depth about how to use the evening watch-you can find the recording on my site.
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
TSLA Reports November 4th. 179.00 is the 10 DMA and 181.05 is S1 tomorrow-good risk points if this wakes up. Plus, R1 and today’s high line up
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
LGF Reports November 7th. As long as today’s low holds, still has lots of room
GME Cleared 52.08 if you got in today. Now, has to clear 52.83 with risk now S1.
ADBE Inside day. Would only risk to today’s low and has to clear 52.31
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
TEX Over R1 (33.35) let’s get back in with stop under the 80 monthly for a swing
Phase Change:
CYH Reports October 30th. If holds 43.23, then still has room to recent highs
K Reports November 4th. Inside day and over 61.08 takes out the 50 DMA.
KBH Big turnaround crossing the 50 DMA. If holds 17.00 then could look at for a confirmed phase change to recovery trade
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
BMRN Inside day. Like under today’s low with risk today’s high
RAX Under today’s low it breaks the 50 DMA and then has support at 44.81. If that breaks could see the 200 weekly moving average 41.20
Category 6: White Cap-N/A
Bye For Now
