Accumulation in volume, new 2013 highs in NASDAQ and the Russell 2000s, Biotechnology, Oil and Gas Exploration ETFs, positive phase change in the Real Estate ETF and a return to an unconfirmed bullish phase in the S&P 500. Who needs government you might be asking yourself? The poor couple planning to get married in a public park that is now closed does-the 800,000 folks furloughed until further notice for sure-but Wall Street? I wrote we were ready to dance to whatever tune the market played-never expected Beethoven’s 9th Symphony-second movement.
S&P 500 (SPY) About a 50% retracement from the high tick on September 19th and the low tick September 30th. Has upside resistance so remains to e seen what this is really made of Subscribers: Positive pivots in all indices
Russell 2000 (IWM) Who closed their eyes and followed this over Monday’s high as written in last night’s daily? 107.61 old 2013 high pivotal with support to hold 106.90
Dow (DIA) Wrote-“First has to clear 151.76 then the 50 DMA so definitely has its work cut out for it.” Today’s high 151.77
Nasdaq (QQQ) Another one to dive into-we did it with AAPL-thanks Icahn and Cook!
ETFs:
XLF (Financials) Still under the 50 DMA which remains troubling as a possible double top from July and September still in play
SMH (Semiconductors) Good move but relatively muted compared to my other favorite dance partners
XRT (Retail) 83.24 is the 2013 high to clear
IYT (Transportation) This will look even better over 119.45
IBB (Biotechnology) Dancing with the stars!
IYR (Real Estate) Unconfirmed recovery phase-needs another day over the 50 DMA
GLD Made a huge drop overnight leaving the risk big-waiting to see if it can nearer to 127-where I believe the risk for a short is more manageable
USO (US Oil Fund)Landed right on the 200 weekly moving average-and now an inside day
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Love this group and expect the 2008 highs to be tested at some point
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Without the government, do we get a reprieve from tapering talk?
EWG (Germany) Subscribers: Long for Advantage and MMMPremium now. Like to see 27.90 hold.
FXI (China) Subscribers: Will look for an opening range reversal on this to control risk now that it is back in an unconfirmed accumulation phase
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
**NOTE: New and Old Subscribers: I do not include on the list 1. Anything with a weekly or daily RSI over 92 2. Anything within 4 days of reporting earnings 3. Anything with a risk over 1 ATR from its current close 4. Anything with only one day under the Floor Trader Pivots (unless specifically noted. 5. Anything with a potential slingshot or brick wall high (new 60 day high, close in the bottom 25% of the intraday range.
**NOTE: So many choices-had to make selections-I also included a few other picks on the focus list for the daytrading room which I will track and tweet about if any setup
Category 1: (Aloha)N/A
Category 2: (Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
LO Over today’s high and R1 looks good even with overhead resistance. Like to see 44.50 hold
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
BYD 14.10 now good risk. Looks good and still needs to clear the 2013 high from 9/23. Cleared the 80 monthly first time since 2008
ISIS Inside day. R1 and today’s high line up for a possible test of 2013 high with chance of higher. Risk 37.40
P Like this now over 25.89 and has to hold today’s lows
FOSL Improved in condition and since thin, like to see 116.10 max risk
CIEN improved in condition. 25.20 good risk to see if this can continue up and over recent highs to 2011 highs
COF Daytraded this and now over 70.00 takes it to new 2013 highs
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
AAPL Kept ½ position on from daytrade. Now look for an opening range reversal against 483.35 or so
EBAY Had a late day opening range reversal and now if holds 55.25 still looks good
FSLR For the record, never violated the slingshot low. Now, through 42.25 takes out August 7th high with a gap to fill to 44.17
KBH Over 18.47 and if holds 18.03 could see move to the 200 DMA 19.23 or higher
KSS Third time over the 50 DMA a charm? To trade it tight, has to hold 52.00
JPM 2Inside days. Has to clear today’s high and hold 51.39 the original stop
X Took profits here and now if holds 20.00 and takes out recent highs, 25.00 is not out of the question.
K slingshot low and like that it held the 65 weekly moving average so risk is today’s low
Shorts: Going to look at GLD for a short
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
HFC 42.52 good risk and under 41.47 could see 38.50
HTZ Distribution phase provided it does not cross 22.74. Support down around 19.75
Bye For Now
