I wondered if there was something wrong with my Tradestation platform today given some super crazy ticks and intense polarization between the gainers and losers.
Perhaps we can notch it up to the eve before the eve of All Hallows’ Eve; but yowza folks, high finance taking on a whole new meaning!
With Metals, Metal Miners and Natural Gas guillotined while Biotechnology,Retail and Financials bore crowns, the true star Thursday was Visa and Mastercard. Mastercard! How many of you even have that card as part of your collection? Charge cards rock Wall Street in a time when the economy is expanding (Gross Domestic Product) as Personal Income for 99% of the US population stagnates.
One of the regulations coming up for a vote in New Mexico next week is decriminalizing marijuana from a felony to a misdemeanor. (Don’t get me started on overcrowded jails filled with folks busted for pot!) Medical marijuana is already legal, yet the state is not ready to commit to full on legalization like our neighbor to the north-Colorado.
Perhaps the credit card companies are already benefitting from recreational pot sales. Perhaps the dark pools are filled with edibles. Perhaps the country should just get on with it and legalize marijuana so when the market gets nuts, we can assume traders are high or at least they should be.
Regardless, we are having fun keeping one step ahead of the market,currently daytrading and short-term miniswing trading more than swing trading.
I cannot wait for Friday! End of the month, the indices are incredibly well poised and we get to wear costumes!
S&P 500 (SPY) 196.84 the 50 DMA to defend with a lot less overhead resistance to deal with Subscribers: Positive Pivots in all
Russell 2000 (IWM) 113.82 the 200 DMA to defend with room to 120-yes, 120!
Dow (DIA) Looks like it could take out the highs although I would prefer to see some consolidation first.
Nasdaq (QQQ) 100.56 the 2014 high, and I suspect could happened tomorrow
XLF (Financials) 23.44 cleared, now pivotal
KRE (Regional Banks) Confirmed phase change to Accumulation
SMH (Semiconductors) Lots of put buying in Intel and this failed the 50 DMA. I don’t; see any irreparable damage however
IYT (Transportation) 2 day rest-even better
IBB (Biotechnology) Note to self-do not underestimate the power of pharmaceuticals!
XRT (Retail) Beautiful move today-but then again, charge, charge, charge!
IYR (Real Estate) Good consolidation leading to more possible new highs
ITB (US Home Construction) Held the 200 DMA and still has to clear 24.26
GLD (Gold Trust) Tarnished
USO (US Oil Fund) Down but not too critical
XLE (Energy) Has to clear 86 to keep going
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Subscribers: 37.59 is R1 and we might add there
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLTs 120 pivotal unless this begins to break further below 117.50
UUP (Dollar Bull) A close this week over 22.76 is really good-looks like it will
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
LEN 42.80 max risk good for swing if clears 43.71 R1 and could do ½ and ½ on a five minute OR over pivots
UAL 49.00 max risk with classic pattern-has to clear pivots then R1 52.33 for new highs
Category 2:N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy an opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
CENX Wide range day with 28.17 point to clear on strength but an ORR works too against 26.45
LRCX Super tight compression if holds 74.86 and clears 76.67 good for a day to miniswing
Category 4:N/A
Phase Change:
DG Unconfirmed bullish phase if holds 61.50 and has to clear 62.79 after the inside day today
OC We exited since in almost a week, this did not move up. However, I would reconsider another entry over 31.63 and only hold it longer if on same day it clears 32.00 and holds
LULU I knew it was worth watching. Now, 41.25 key support on an ORR or over42.37 recent high should see more upside
YOKU Reports 11/13. 18.63 pivotal with converging 10 and 50 DMAs. Over R1 19.20 with slippage up to 19.24 looks like clear skies
HPQ Reports 11/25 Inside day under the 50 DMA. Over 36.00 looks good for swing with risk to 34.90 for swing
T A close over 34.63 tomorrow is good for a swing trade over the converging moving averages
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
JOY If cant clear today’s high then under 51.40 still weak with move to 50.50 then perhaps lower-daytrade
NFLX Looking for 360 if cant clear 382.70
Category 6:N/A
Best Best wishes for your trading,
Michele Schneider
