After all said and done, the S&P 500 closed higher for the week. So did NASDAQ and the Russell 2000s. In fact, NASDAQ wound up really close to the 2013 highs. The Dow, on the other hand, closed lower but with a notable inside day from last Thursday’s range on Friday. In fact, NASDAQ and the Russell 2000 also had inside days. Therefore, at the risk of ambiguity, those inside days are analogous to one’s holding one’s breath until the range of the inside day breaks one way or another to elucidate short-term direction. Then, exhale! The bigger picture has not changed very much at all. S&P 500 fluctuates between warning and bullish phases which means once it clears from the 50 DMA one way or another, the intermediate term trend will show itself. NASDAQ and Russell 2000s are firmly in bullish phases, which leads one to believe next week has more upside in store. As far as sectors and groups, the leaders continue to be Oil and Gas Exploration, Semiconductors, and Biotechnology. Real Estate continues to act jittery in the face of any tapering talk and the Financials are short term neutral to negative but longer term still very positive. I find myself fascinated by the number of stocks soaring to new highs regardless of the diverse macro picture! And all of this before we really get into earnings season, not to mention the current political situation. Now, that’s entertainment!
S&P 500 (SPY) Back to an unconfirmed bullish phase so a second day over the 50 DMA will help a lot. Notable, however, is the topping candle, which only a move over 170.60 will negate Subscribers: Positive pivots in all indices
Russell 2000 (IWM) Inside day with 106.90 pivotal, over 107.36 strong and under 105.60 very troublesome indeed
Dow (DIA) Inside day and unless there is a spectacular move from here-an indication that the 200 DMA will be a magnet. This is the very reason the soaring stocks seem safer as daytrades mainly-for now
Nasdaq (QQQ) Inside day and almost completely the opposite looking from the Dow! Look here alone and one sees higher levels in store
ETFs:
XLF (Financials) Also working off of topping candles from July and then the possible double top from mid-September. However, also has spent 2013 over a major monthly moving average. Therefore, not the first place I’d go for a long right now, but certainly not a short either unless it breaks last week’s lows
SMH (Semiconductors) I think Friday’s close was positive keeping this group a favorite for the conclusion of 2013
XRT (Retail) After looking double toppish coming into Friday, the inside day and firm session has this looking a lot better. It also means over the 2013 high, totally worth a follow
IYT (Transportation) Inside day over the 50 DMA Friday. Used to be my favorite; now more a second string choice.
IBB (Biotechnology) Inside day-again, don’t give up here
IYR (Real Estate) Look here and the world is quite different.
GLD Closed the week lower. Still looking at this to resume the move down.
USO (US Oil Fund) Subscribers: Inside day and still with positive pivots
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) This has been so strong, I’m looking for the secret pipeline that must be running through my property!
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) FOMC minutes released this week
VXX Subscribers: confirmed recovery phase with inside day.
UUP (Dollar Bull) Subscribers: Brick wall bottom if confirms Monday-Through 21.65 will consider a new long with risk to recent lows 21.47
EWG (Germany) Subscribers: 2 Inside days-that’ll be worth watching
FXI (China) Subscribers: Premium account got to a first profit target. Timing of entry allows us to see this one through against the 200 DMA
SGG (Sugar) 62.00 is the new risk if you are looking for an entry
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Lots of great trades last Friday so now
**NOTE: New and Old Subscribers: I do not include on the list 1. Anything with a weekly or daily RSI over 92 2. Anything within 4 days of reporting earnings 3. Anything with a risk over 1 ATR from its current close 4. Anything with only one day under the Floor Trader Pivots (unless specifically noted. 5. Anything with a potential slingshot or brick wall high (new 60 day high, close in the bottom 25% of the intraday range.
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
OMX Orderly correction with 12.45 max risk and over R1 and today’s high lining up
Category 2: (Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
GCI corrected with an inside day and support at 25.98. Longer term still looks positive
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
CRM Improved in condition. Over Friday’s high with risk to S1, can see a continued move up
UPS If holds 90.00 can look at it over Friday’s high for possible new 2013 highs
EBAY Improved in condition. Friday’s low good risk with a move over 55.80 should see more upside-longer range charts look good
TEX As one crossing the 80 monthly moving average, Friday’s move puts in posed for more upside for swing trade. 34.25 good risk
LVS Inside day and really great risk to S1 with possibilities for new highs
COF Big move Friday, but if can get an opening range reversal then risk is better. Otherwise, a day to miniswing trade on strength
ALXN Has some legs after Thursday’s collapse. Now, conservative risk under the pivots and over 116.75 a good sign for more upside
F Inside day with a move over R1 good with risk to the 50 DMA
LGF Inside day with R1 and Friday’s high lining up and risk 35.85. Could see 39.00 or higher
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
TXN Now a 3 day correction against the 50 DMA and approaching oversold. Long term still bullish therefore looking for a re entry
Phase Change:
GMCR Had a slingshot low on September 30th and closed Friday with a doji day. Now, has to hold S2 if kept the small positions and would add over Friday’s high
CTRX Brick wall bottom with a move back over the 23 monthly moving average. With big range Friday, like to see 45.75 hold. Through Friday’s high is also through the 10 DMA
PFG Needs a second day over the 50 DMA so 42.80 has to hold. Has overhead, but one of the ones to cross the 80 monthly this year.
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
SPG 150 max risk and looks like it could head to new lows
ETR 2 inside days and max risk Friday’s high. Like to see Friday low fail
Bye For Now
