When I was coaching high school juniors for the English component of the SAT, to master reading comprehension we would talk about the 5 W’s and H-Who, What, Where, Why, When and How. This not only improved comprehension, but critical thinking as well. For fun-after all we can all use some-let’s answer those questions. We will call it Stock Aptitude Test! Who? The US Government. What? The rapidly approaching deadline to raise the debt ceiling or default. Where? Capitol Hill. Why? Because they can. When? October 17th. How? That’s just it-they don’t seem to know how! I jest (sort of), but the real point is the market is rightfully scared of a repeat of 2011 and the downgrade and as well it should be. The S&P 500 is back to an unconfirmed warning phase; the Russell 2000 seems slated to test the underlying 50 DMA, the Dow has been troublesome for a while now, looking like it wants the 200 DMA and NASDAQ, with its AAPL upgrade, might still be best hope since it ended the session with a hammer doji candlestick meaning that neither the bulls nor bears can successfully take over therefore, we continue to look to the phase, which remains bullish.
S&P 500 (SPY) Back to an unconfirmed warning phase, holding last week’s low thus far at 166.84. Subscribers: Negative pivots in all indices
Russell 2000 (IWM) 105.24 most recent low to hold or will see the 50 DMA. Only a move back over 106.90 will improve conditions considerably
Dow (DIA) 146.90 is the 20 DMA as underlying support
Nasdaq (QQQ) EYES here for 2 reasons. One, I wrote about above. The other is that it now has 2 inside days! So, if you were waiting to go short, under today’s low should give a good signal. If you are looking for a reason to buy, as scary as it sounds, over today’s high should be equally a good signal.
ETFs:
XLF (Financials) 19.73 last week low, and if can’t hold that, then figure the 200 DMA will look attractive.
SMH (Semiconductors) Still love this group, but not in the face of a meltdown. Have to see market stabilize
XRT (Retail) The 50 DMA is very close now
IYT (Transportation) Under the 50 DMA should fill gap to 115.72
IBB (Biotechnology) Big drop again on the bigger they are the harder they…
IYR (Real Estate) Held up better but not sure I find that too impressive given its current bearish phase
GLD Ok, so it’s back to watching 124 to 130 range and which way it breaks first
OIH (Oil Services)Inside day.
XLE (Energy) Inside day on the 50 DMA
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) 66.80 support on daily to watch
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) FOMC minutes released this week
VXX Subscribers: Glad we are still long here
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingl
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
HES Has to hold the 10 DMA at 79.00 and clear pivots, then R1 and today’s high to resume move up
Category 2: (Pipeline)N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
TEX Inside day resting on the 10 DMA now good risk with negative pivots so HAS to clear R1 to get us in for swing
ALXN Inside day also negative pivots so has to clear today’s high and R1 and hold 113.96
BA 2 inside days but under the 10 DMA so has to clear 117.78 which will also clear R1 and hold today’s low
NOC Impressive move today. Unconfirmed phase change to bullish if holds the 50 DMA 94.65 or so. Has plenty of room to upside, so wouldn’t be afraid to buy a reversal or strength
CELG inside day with negative pivots so has to hold the 10 DMA 152.75 and move over today’s high
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
NSM Oversold and if clears today’s high also clears R1 and can use today’s low or the 50 DMA below as risk
TXN Still oversold and holding onto the 50 DMA which means has to clear today’s high
Phase Change:
CTRX Tried to confirm the brick wall and almost did. So, if can clear today’s high looks good. Otherwise, want to see today’s low hold
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
TWC Unconfirmed phase change to warning so risk is the 50 DMA or around 111.91
CLF Inside day. Risk today’s high and under Friday’s low, could see 20.00 or under
JOY Inside day with risk to the 50 DMA 51.51. Support on the way down, but has room
SODA Under today’s low looks vulnerable to the 200 DMA. Risk now is 64.25
Category 6: White Cap-N/A
Earnings Dates Coming Up
|
COST |
Wed, Oct 09, 13 |
Before Market |
02 Days |
1.46 |
1.39 |
|
FDO |
Wed, Oct 09, 13 |
Before Market |
02 Days |
0.84 |
0.75 |
|
DRH |
Fri, Oct 11, 13 |
Before Market |
04 Days |
0.19 |
0.18 |
|
JPM |
Fri, Oct 11, 13 |
Before Market |
04 Days |
1.33 |
1.4 |
|
WFC |
Fri, Oct 11, 13 |
Before Market |
04 Days |
0.97 |
0.88 |
|
C |
Tue, Oct 15, 13 |
Before Market |
08 Days |
1.1 |
1.06 |
|
FTNT |
Tue, Oct 15, 13 |
After Market |
08 Days |
0.11 |
0.14 |
|
JNJ |
Tue, Oct 15, 13 |
Before Market |
08 Days |
1.32 |
1.25 |
|
MOS |
Tue, Oct 15, 13 |
Before Market |
08 Days |
0.62 |
1.01 |
|
AXP |
Wed, Oct 16, 13 |
After Market |
09 Days |
1.22 |
1.09 |
|
EBAY |
Wed, Oct 16, 13 |
After Market |
09 Days |
0.63 |
0.55 |
|
IBM |
Wed, Oct 16, 13 |
After Market |
09 Days |
3.96 |
3.62 |
|
KMP |
Wed, Oct 16, 13 |
After Market |
09 Days |
0.61 |
0.57 |
|
SCSS |
Wed, Oct 16, 13 |
After Market |
09 Days |
0.43 |
0.46 |
|
SNDK |
Wed, Oct 16, 13 |
After Market |
09 Days |
1.32 |
0.48 |
|
STJ |
Wed, Oct 16, 13 |
Before Market |
09 Days |
0.89 |
0.83 |
|
STLD |
Wed, Oct 16, 13 |
After Market |
09 Days |
0.25 |
0.15 |
|
URI |
Wed, Oct 16, 13 |
After Market |
09 Days |
1.6 |
1.35 |
|
BAC |
Thu, Oct 17, 13 |
Before Market |
10 Days |
0.23 |
0 |
|
BAX |
Thu, Oct 17, 13 |
Before Market |
10 Days |
1.19 |
1.14 |
|
BHI |
Thu, Oct 17, 13 |
Before Market |
10 Days |
0.78 |
0.73 |
|
BPOP |
Thu, Oct 17, 13 |
Before Market |
10 Days |
0.73 |
0.45 |
|
BX |
Thu, Oct 17, 13 |
Before Market |
10 Days |
0.58 |
0.55 |
|
CBST |
Thu, Oct 17, 13 |
After Market |
10 Days |
0.54 |
0.55 |
|
CHKP |
Thu, Oct 17, 13 |
Before Market |
10 Days |
0.83 |
0.79 |
|
COF |
Thu, Oct 17, 13 |
After Market |
10 Days |
1.77 |
2.01 |
|
DO |
Thu, Oct 17, 13 |
Before Market |
10 Days |
1.21 |
1.28 |
|
ETFC |
Thu, Oct 17, 13 |
After Market |
10 Days |
0.17 |
-0.1 |
|
FCS |
Thu, Oct 17, 13 |
Before Market |
10 Days |
0.12 |
0.25 |
|
FITB |
Thu, Oct 17, 13 |
Before Market |
10 Days |
0.42 |
0.38 |
|
GOOG |
Thu, Oct 17, 13 |
After Market |
10 Days |
10.38 |
9.03 |
|
GS |
Thu, Oct 17, 13 |
Before Market |
10 Days |
2.53 |
2.85 |
|
PM |
Thu, Oct 17, 13 |
Before Market |
10 Days |
1.44 |
1.38 |
|
UNH |
Thu, Oct 17, 13 |
Before Market |
10 Days |
1.52 |
1.5 |
|
UNP |
Thu, Oct 17, 13 |
Before Market |
10 Days |
2.5 |
2.19 |
Bye For Now
