The index that went up the most during Tuesday’s satisfying session percentagewise is DIA or the Dow Industrials. I begin with this factoid as A) DIA has been the laggard B) Even with the move up today, it remains the sole index in a warning phase. The Russell 2000s, S&P 500 and NASDAQ (first to get there) all reached the Promised Land already. SPY and IWM now have 2013 highs made in early August to contend with while the QQQs made yet another new 2013 high on Tuesday. Why is the DIA in a warning phase possibly significant? Mainly because as the others are already rich on the daily relative strength indicators, the move to the 50 DMA or even more importantly, its failure to get there, could be a sign to protect longs and begin to look for other opportunities that hedge a very long positioned portfolio.
S&P 500 (SPY) Going to say that 168.26, Tuesday’s gap low is important to hold. Otherwise, we are looking at the 2013 high as resistance Subscribers: Positive pivots in all indices.
Russell 2000 (IWM) 105.63 is the 2013 high.
Dow (DIA) 152.30 is the 50 DMA to clear-or not
Nasdaq (QQQ) Leading still!
ETFs:
XLF (Financials) Unconfirmed phase change to bullish. Has to confirm by holding the 50 DMA
SMH (Semiconductors) 39.72 the 2013 high to clear for sustained rally
XRT (Retail) Unconfirmed phase change to bullish. Has to confirm by holding the 50 DMA
IYT (Transportation) Confirmed bullish phase-2013 highs next hurdle
IBB (Biotechnology) On new highs.
IYR (Real Estate) Through today’s high should resume its bottoming formation. Otherwise, 62.65 support to hold
XHB (Homebuilders) Intersting doji day on a confirmed bullish phase change
GLDResuming its negative phase? Still want to see 130 and what happens there first
USO (US Oil Fund)Topping action with the 50 DMA support close by
OIH (Oil Services)New multiyear high!
XLE (Energy) Still waiting for it to clear 84.00
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Subscribers: Took a rest right near the 2013 highs. Eyes here again tomorrow
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Subscribers: If the Fed has any intention of buying bonds, the TLT chart has to hold 102.11
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha) N/A
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can eitherbuy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
FDX Like against 109.72 on a reversal at this point and looks like move to 113-114 next
SCSS Inside day. Stop the 50 DMA at 23.91. If clears today’s high, like for a move to 2013 highs or higher
HCA Long for a swing. Inside day. Like over 39.58 with stop at the 50 DMA
ANN Inside day. Has room to 2012 highs if market stays firm. Risk 35.00
CTXS Held the 10 DMA. Look at an opening range reversal against today’s low or breakout over 72.00
Z More miniswing trade now if can hold 96.25 with target 103 the 2013 highs
LTD Had a good opening range reversal with now reasons to think over 58.70 should see more upside
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
BXP 105.40 today’s low max risk on this phase change to unconfirmed accumulation over the 200 DMA
KSS Still very interested in this especially over today’s high against the 50 DMA
FSLR Like this on reversal with next resistance at the gap at 42.25 to clear
LO Waiting for a dip closer to 43.50 area for risk
CLH right up against a trendline which if clears, could push this up to 2011 highs. Thin stock so all about risk. Best I see, 55.80
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
MJN 75.75 resistance and under 7462 the 50 DMA failing converging moving averages
XOM 88.40 max risk. Like to see it break today’s low
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots.. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day’s lows
DRI Has to break S1 and today’s low and for swing risk is 48.85 the 50 DMA-now in a death cross
Bye For Now
