Evening Watch List for September 17th

Mish Schneider | September 16, 2015

Lotta Cash So I’m Never Talking Cheap

-Matti Baybee

Retail (XRT) woke up. Granny Retail as Matriarch of the Economic Modern Family must have put the word out to the ladies. Perhaps the more subliminal message began for others including myself, through catalogues, ‘cause I have sure received many.

Perhaps it’s headiness from the September Vogue, Fall shopping, Back-to-School, Pre-holiday shopping, or maybe just some good ole retail therapy. Whatever, Wednesday, many retail names (Kohls KSS, Lululemon LULU, Under Armour UA, and Michael Kors KORS to name a few, made huge gains.

NASDAQ closed just above the 200 DMA, which puts the price on a significant pivotal point. Auspiciously and on the heels of the FED announcement, Wednesday’s action helped both those rooting for more Quantitative Easing to practice their victory dance while Tuesday’s Rate Rise fans celebrated with firmer rates.

Can Both Sides Win?

Doubtful. I keep going back to picturing Janet after work. What is she doing, thinking, feeling? If we look at the 20 Year+ Long Bond (TLT) performance, Bond Traders are relaying higher rates could be Fed’s next move.

The contents of Janet’s head, “QE or Raise? QE or Raise? QE or Raise? Heck with it. Fed watchers, eat this: Tora Tora Tora!” (Japanese code used to describe the complete surprise when they attacked Pearl Harbor)

What About Commodities?

On Sunday I wrote, “The Agricultural ETF (DBA) has vacillated over and under its 50 DMA since entering a bearish phase in August 2014. The Commodity Tracking Index ETF (DBC) also entered a bear phase the same time as DBA. What interests me about both of these ETFs is that they are only marginally trading under their 2009 lows whereas SPY and the rest of the indices are trading over double the value from their 2009 lows.”

Furthermore, I began the week suggesting we trade quick momentum style (1-3 days in and out) in the direction of the instrument’s phase, most sensibly evening up before the announcement.

Are You a Swing Trader?

I am. What do I and folks like me do now? Best advice I’m giving and taking is to wait a bit longer. Typically, I rarely think about the impact of news since I have always believed and profited from the technical signs preceding the actual news.

But other than the day to miniswing trading opportunities which, yes, have been plentiful, I can truly make a case for both up and/or down from here.

I still like commodities, I still like certain equities, I am suspicious of the overall market’s negative phases. I will patiently look for the best risk with the potential for greatest rewards long or short.

“Gucci, Louis, Prada, Finessing
All My Guys Riding No Question
Money Long Swagger Impressive” Matti Baybe

S&P 500 (SPY) Cleared Shangri-La or 200 Resistance. Now pivotal especially on a closing basis Subscribers: Positive pivots in all

Russell 2000 (IWM) This is either one giant bear flag forming, or Granddad is bent on visiting 119-120 to suck in more longs. The bottom in place? I’m having issues reckoning with that

Dow (DIA) Good move with a gap overhead to 170.22. If filled more positive. If not, more negative

Nasdaq (QQQ) Unconfirmed phase change to warning over the 200 DMA. 106.93 especially on a closing basis

XLF (Financials) 23.20 pivotal

KRE (Regional Banks) As the Prodigal son, I will closely watch 42.67-.90 overhead resistance. It’s also nearing overbought on this bounce so equally important is if it can hold 41.38 the 200 DMA

SMH (Semiconductors) Confirmed Recovery Phase. 50.90 the 50 DMA pivotal

IYT (Transportation) Confirmed Recovery Phase. 146 the 50 DMA pivotal

IBB (Biotechnology) 346.63 key support

XRT (Retail) Resurrected over 46.75 with the 46 area not best support to hold

IYR (Real Estate) 69.60 nearest support now with 72.00 area resistance

ITB (US Home Construction) Hasn’t done much but still in a Bullish phase so a top sector to buy if market holds

GLD (Gold Trust) Marginally closed with an unconfirmed recovery phase. Seems this commodity is hopeful and cautious at the same time

SLV (Silver) This also had a marginal unconfirmed phase change to recovery

GDX (Gold Miners) Big volume but still has the 50 DMA to clear

USO (US Oil Fund) Been writing about the potential bull flag-it cleared and closed in an unconfirmed recovery phase-you can see why commodities and DBC have my attention

XLE (Energy) Lagging behind USO, interesting

UNG (US NatGas Fund) Been basing since May with 12.28 rock bottom support

TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Over 30.93 clears the 200 weekly moving average. 29.50 near-term support

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) 118 support but for now, all bets are off til you know what

UUP (Dollar Bull) 25.00 is the point to clear

GREK (Greece) Began the week saying this had changed phase. If bought, locking in profits not so bad

EWI (Italy) Of all the country ETFs, this one is in the best phase making it a contender

FXI (China Large Cap Fund) Closer to that move to 38 area which could have this possibly hit the wall for best short trade risk

RSX (Russia) Followed oil

***Market Tone: Short-term Positive 4, Intermediate-Term Negative 4 and Long-Term Negative 2

NOTE: *All starred picks are from the automated list of picks (which now includes short picks!) denote that it has one or more of the 18 chart patterns we have used on the radar screen. For example, inside day, 2 days under floor trader pivots, phase change, brick wall or return to the 10 DMA, etc.

Longs:

ACAD**
AGO**
ALK
ALKS
AMZN**
BYD
CAM**
COST(F)**
CRM
CROX**
CTB**
CTRP**
CTSH**
CTXS
DHR**
FAZ
FRAN**
GOOG
GT**
HLF
HSY**
K
KSU**
LLY**
MGM**
NOW
PM
SDS
SRPT
TZA
UA**
USG
UVXY
VXX