Evening Watch List for September 25th

Mish Schneider | September 25, 2015

A Tisket, A Tasket, A Commodity ETF Basket

Manifesting Reality

Yesterday, a friend of mine said to me that if Commodities base out from here, he believes it’ll be in no small part because of my “will” to make it happen.

Of course he was just being cheeky. However, what did Commodities do that got my blood racing some on Thursday?

Checking into the 52-week price range in November 2015 contracts for the top Energy, Metals, Agriculture, Meat & Livestock and Consumer Commodities, most are still close to the lows.

Nearest to a 52-week high, Cocoa, mentioned on Monday, wins. At the 52-week lows sit Coffee, Live Cattle, and Soybeans.

Corn rests somewhere in the middle of its 52-week range. Oil, Hogs, Sugar and Silver are beginning to come off their 52-week lows, showing promise.

So about that blood-racing thing

Beginning with Gold (GLD), in a Recovery phase, the rally to 110.50 area (and an area is just that-hard to pinpoint an exact number) took GLD right into resistance. From here, 108 should hold if this is to continue basing.

Oil (USO), remains below the 50 DMA. 14.00 has been support all throughout September. Over 15.00 with some volume, gets interesting.

Corn, if can clear over 23.80 on a weekly basis, would give more confidence to the ETF DBC. Assuming the metals and oil stay firm, with CORN in the mix, DBC over its 50 DMA becomes compelling.

Focusing mainly on Agriculturals, the ETF DBA, weights CORN, but also includes the weakest of the aforementioned commodities. Beyond 21.52 would put this back above the 2008 low.

Should DBA trade up there, that might ameliorate some of the very real “deflationary” fears.

Crucial to successfully manifesting reality is recognizing the difference between actual reality and one’s dream of a certain reality. Such is the case with Commodities. Such is the reason I love charts!

S&P 500 (SPY) 190 (low 190.56) has daily chart support with 195 now the hurdle to clear. Subscribers: Negative Pivots in all

Russell 2000 (IWM) 112 support held and now needs to clear 114 then 115.40, or could see 110

Dow (DIA) Held 160 so if good, should take out 163 then 164.50 next hurdle. Under 160 see 154

Nasdaq (QQQ) Tested but held 102.50 support. 104 pivotal then 105.55 resistance

XLF (Financials) Tested but closed over the 22.40 support. Good if it clears back over 23.20

KRE (Regional Banks) A diamond in the rough-would like to see a close over 40.50 this week

SMH (Semiconductors) 47.70 support, 50 resistance and pivotal

IYT (Transportation) 142.50 pivotal 140 support

IBB (Biotechnology) 321-322 is the weekly moving average to see this close above

XRT (Retail) A monthly close over 45.38 keeps hope alive. Otherwise, looking at 44.00 next closest support

IYR (Real Estate) Haven’t given up here since it held 70.85. Over 73 clears the 50 DMA

ITB (US Home Construction) Sitting on the 200 DMA

SLV (Silver) A close over 15.00 would be a good sign a bottom is in place

GDX (Gold Miners) Unconfirmed phase change to recovery-needs a second day

XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Over 34.40 gets interesting

UNG (US NatGas Fund) As a weak commodity, watch to see if this was a good reversal off of new lows

TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) 26.50 key support.

UUP (Dollar Bull) 25.00 pivotal

EWG (Germany) Landed on a major monthly moving average. If the low holds, correction could be over

DBC (DB Commodity Index) Like better if can clear/hold over 15.25

SGG (Sugar) Cash back to unconfirmed Recovery Phase

***Market Tone: Short-term Negative 2, Intermediate-Term Negative 8 and Long-Term Negative 6

NOTE: *All starred picks are from the automated list of picks (which now includes short picks!) denote that it has one or more of the 18 chart patterns we have used on the radar screen. For example, inside day, 2 days under floor trader pivots, phase change, brick wall or return to the 10 DMA, etc.

Longs:

ADBE
ALK
AMZN**
BBY
CAM
CAR**
CRM
CTB
CTXS**
CUBE
CVRR**
EQIX**
EXPE
FB
FBHS**
FBR
HD**
HFC**
JBLU
K
KORS**
LGF
LLY
MYGN
NFX**
NKE**
OVTI**
PANW**
RCL
RTN**
SRPT**
TPX
UA**
UVXY**
VXX**