Oh goodie-I get to write about the small caps again! Inside day-real close to the 2013 highs. You know what that means, right? The range break is super important. Over today’s highs, well, that brings it to new 2013 highs, check! The Dow crossed back over the 50 DMA for a return to an unconfirmed bullish phase, check. Nasdaq gapped higher and held Wednesday’s high but still has last week’s highs to clear, check. S&P 500 did nothing to suggest negating the topping candles from last week, check. The Financial ETF remains weak, check. Real Estate is in a bear phase, check. The rates went up some, check. Biotechnology ruled the world, check. The market is like a flirtatious woman-she drops her handkerchief; a gentleman bends down to pick it up thinking she’s now his; he stands up to find her disappeared from sight. Why? Because she is conflicted-she wants it-and then she doesn’t. But, Friday’s here-and what woman wants to be alone? Is the market Garbo or Gaga?
S&P 500 (SPY) Law of attraction to the 50 DMA still. That would change if it clears 170.50 Subscribers: Positive pivots in all indexes
Russell 2000 (IWM) DOJI Inside day. Show us the way!
Dow (DIA) Weak unconfirmed bullish phase
Nasdaq (QQQ) Much better looking after Thursday session
ETFs:
XLF (Financials) Has to clear the 50 DMA
SMH (Semiconductors) Over 40.50 most likely continuing to new highs
XRT (Retail) Nike earnings report should help here. Subscribers: As mentioned in live coaching-like this and Semis the most if market holds
IYT (Transportation) Inside day on the 10 DMA
IBB (Biotechnology) Queen bee’s workers came back from their holiday
IYR (Real Estate) A gap higher would be nice-clearing the 50 DMA especially
XHB (Homebuilders) 2 inside days Subscribers: Eyes here
GLD Under 125 seems like the fun is over. Only over 130 should the bulls come back in with a vengeance
USO (US Oil Fund)inside day
OIH (Oil Services)Inside day47.00 area of support
XLE (Energy) Topping candle from last week still a factor
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Has to clear 66.80 now Subscribers: Still looks great longer term
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLTs 106 now pivotal
VXX Subscribers: All about 13.42 holding now
EWG (Germany) Inside day. Subscribers: Over 28.02 should continue after the runaway gap from 9/16
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
**NOTE: New and Old Subscribers: I do not include on the list 1. Anything with a weekly or daily RSI over 92 2. Anything within 4 days of reporting earnings 3. Anything with a risk over 1 ATR from its current close 4. Anything with only one day under the Floor Trader Pivots (unless specifically noted. 5. Anything with a potential slingshot or brick wall high (new 60 day high, close in the bottom 25% of the intraday range.
Category 1: (Aloha) N/A
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
AFL Over 62.50 on close but now needs to clear 63.00 to be good to 2013 highs
ETN 2 inside days. 69.60 max risk and over today’s high would expect new highs
COF If holds 68.72 then could see move over 70.00 for a move to new highs
BYD 3 inside days! Wait for R1 and today’s high to clear
TRIP Inside day and like over today’s high with risk to 74.06
USG 27.70 should hold and since over the 80 monthly still looks good longer term
AAPL Inside day and Narrowest range in 13 days and a doji. 483.95 good tight risk. This moving would help everything
ALXN Improved in condition. Good risk now is around 114 and a reversal or breakout if market is strong ok
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
FOSL Good example of this category if and only if the 50 DMA holds and it clears 116.50 then today’s highs
Phase Change:
JPM Will keep a stop around 51.40 and if can clear today’s high looks like the 50 DMA is next
WY outperformed market but now, to impress has to get going to the 200 DMA like it means it
KSS unconfirmed phase to bullish so if today’s low holds, can try again
BXP squeezed between converging moving averages with an inside day. Over R1 looks good
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
RLGY Inside day. 44.64 good risk. Support around 43 but under there could see return to 40.50
Bye For Now
