Evening Watch List for September 28th

Mish Schneider | September 28, 2015

Did Big Pharma Overdose The Market?

Bio-dreck-nology

First, let’s hear for the Agricultural Commodities, many of which had a stellar day last Friday!

Corn, Soybeans, Coffee, Sugar, Live and Feeder Cattle all rallied gaining between 2.24 and 4.64% (Sugar).

Nice when one’s obsession or “will” to help an entire industry bottom out works (for a day anyway!)

All kidding aside, I will continue to harp on Commodities and particularly the 2 basket ETFs DBC and DBA. I do believe the opportunities will continue to present themselves.

Now, onto a more unpleasant subject-Biotechnology (IBB). As Big Brother of my Economic Modern Family, looks like he was kicked out of Granddad’s house.

Of course, Granddad Russell 2000 (IWM) wasn’t exactly a contributing member of the domicile either, unless you consider putting household items up for a fire sale a contribution.

As both weekly and monthly moving averages become super important for longer term perspective, let’s examine a few interesting ones.

Biotechnology had its first close under the 65-week moving average since the summer 2011. The monthly chart has last gasp support at 294.

Granddad IWM broke both the week and month averages thereby putting the 200 week MA in focus.

Grandma Retail (XRT), already under the weekly MA, has one more shot to prove herself a contender if she can hold and close over 45.34 by the end of this month.

Nothing too cheerful to report concerning Semiconductors, unless it closes over 50.15 by September 30th. Same is true in the Transportation sector with noteworthy mileage between it and the monthly MA.

Best and maybe only hope is naturally our Prodigal Son Regional Banks (KRE). Safe for now and holding 40.20-40.50, KRE ends last week respecting long term support.

Which brings me back to…wait for it….Commodities!

Gold (GLD), looking more and more like a worthy safe haven. Oil (USO), sucking up to the 50 DMA, millimeters out of reach. Corn ended the week with an unconfirmed phase change to recovery.

Although DBC and DBA have more work to do, they are getting ready to make an offer to our Economic Modern Family to see if they wish to lease their house with an option to buy.

S&P 500 (SPY) Unless this ends September over 197.50, figure 190 minor support then better at around 173 Subscribers: Positive Pivots SPY DIA Negative IWM Neutral QQQ

Russell 2000 (IWM) 110 marginal support but at this point, seems 102.50 could be next

Dow (DIA) Under 162 see 160 minor support. Over 164.50 could help the rest of the market

Nasdaq (QQQ) 98.80 monthly chart support-if defends that’s one thing. If not, down to the 200 weekly moving average we go.

XLF (Financials) Over 23.20 for September close, a fighting chance

KRE (Regional Banks) Best spot of all the major groups if holds and clears over 41.50 early in the week

SMH (Semiconductors) 47.70 support, 50 resistance and pivotal

IYT (Transportation) 142.50 pivotal 140 support

IBB (Biotechnology) Will give Big Bro his bed back if clears and holds over 321.50

XRT (Retail) A monthly close over 45.38 keeps hope alive. Otherwise, looking at 44.00 next closest support

IYR (Real Estate) A great example of liking something but not touching it until chart points clear-they didn’t

ITB (US Home Construction) Another sector of relative strength. And by relative I mean to our hurting Economic Modern Family

GLD (Gold Trust) 110.25 takes this over resistance and maybe to 114 area

SLV (Silver) A close over 15.00 would be a good sign a bottom is in place

GDX (Gold Miners) Confirmed phase change to recovery. Worth watching

USO (US Oil Fund) Waiting for 15.00

UNG (US NatGas Fund) If holds 11.91 and clears 12.40 perhaps we have seen a bottom

TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) 26.50 key support.

UUP (Dollar Bull) 25.00 pivotal and over 25.17 clears the 50 DMA

EWG (Germany) Didn’t buy it Friday but watching for a tight risk trade if clears 25.00

CORN (Corn) Over 24.00 gets real interesting

DBA (PwrShs DB Ag Fd) Waiting for it to clear 21.52

DBC (DB Commodity Index) Like better if can clear/hold over 15.25

SGG (Sugar) Unconfirmed phase change to Recovery

***Market Tone: Short-term Negative 1, Intermediate-Term Negative 8 and Long-Term Negative 6

NOTE: *All starred picks are from the automated list of picks (which now includes short picks!) denote that it has one or more of the 18 chart patterns we have used on the radar screen. For example, inside day, 2 days under floor trader pivots, phase change, brick wall or return to the 10 DMA, etc.

Longs:

ADBE**
ALK**
AMZN**
CAM
CAR**
CRM
CTB
CTXS
CUBE
CVRR
DTE**
EQIX
EXPE
FBHS**
HD
HTZ**
JBL**
JBLU**
K**
KIM**
LGF
LLY
MCD**
MYGN
NFLX
NKE**
NNN**
NOW
OI**
PANW
PM
RCL
ROST
SRPT
STZ**
TPX
TZA**
UA**