S&P 500 managed a close in the green and above 164.35 which was a resistance level coming into Tuesday, until it became a support level end of day. However, the phase remains in warning, albeit, weak warning. The market reacted with jitters to any news concerning Syria except in the world of real estate andhomebuilders. Those groups are reacting more to interest rates with the debate of tapering versus no tapering by the Federal Reserve getting long in the tooth. Biotechnology cares little about war or higher rates working on its own bullish fumes, quite frankly, for nearly 3 years now. Those are the trends legends are made of! NASDAQ, the index that is the bullish phase holdout, acted like a bullish index, closing well and now above a fast moving average. With SPY and the small caps (IWM) so close to the 50 DMA, we can afford to sit and wait to see if that level clears for an improvement in phase and a new long opportunity. Otherwise, Tuesday’s low becomes the place to defend, otherwise, expect more selling to come in.
S&P 500 (SPY) 163.05 last week’s low support, 164.35 pivotal and over 165.90 brings it closer to the promised land Subscribers: Positive pivots in all indices.
Russell 2000 (IWM) 102.50 is a good area to see clear for overall confidence in the market. 100.00 is now the closest support level to hold
Dow (DIA) 145 is next underlying support, then the 200 DMA. Over 149, well, that would be a game changer
Nasdaq (QQQ) 76.55 fills the gap from the drop after 8/30. That means if that level clears, the recent highs are within reach. 74.80 is the 50 DMA
ETFs:
XLF (Financials) 19.78 good point to clear, then we look at the 50 DMA.
SMH (Semiconductors) Sitting right on a key pivotal area 37.50. Subscribers: A gap higher here would be very enticing. Keeping close watch here.
XRT (Retail) After a sweet run this year, now looking more vulnerable especially under 77.00
IYT (Transportation) Daily right now not so pretty. Longer term charts intact which gives this more room to the downside without major damage.
IBB (Biotechnology) 197 now support 198.46 next point to clear
IYR (Real Estate) Needs a turnaround soon as perhaps first real clue to what the Fed might do regarding interest rates. Getting real close to longer term support around November 2012 lows 60.84. Subscribers:There was a slingshot low pattern made on August 20th which means 60.92 is key to hold. I would watch here for any signs of strength over 62.85
GLDA bit tough to gauge risk for long or short right now
USO (US Oil Fund)Inside day. Subscribers: A good one to trade the range break up or down since the points are clear
OIH (Oil Services) Subscribers: As it long as it holds the 50 DMA I’m in! Over 46.00, I’m happy!
XLE (Energy) Subscribers: long term looks good although was not an easy day. Watch for more clarity tomorrow
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Not bad looking at these levels Subscribers: Would look for a setup over 62.70 against the 50 DMA
UUP (Dollar Bull) Subscribers: Unconfirmed improvement of phase to warning
EWG (Germany) Subscribers: Watch the 50 DMA for possible re entry
FXI (China) Subscribers: Cleared the 65 weekly moving average-first time since March
SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: If clears 58.00 will look to re enter
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingl
Category 1: (Aloha) N/A
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can eitherbuy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
HAL Over today’s highs looks good to possibly new highs with risk, 47.99
TRIP Ended the day with an opening range reversal over the FTP. Today’s low max risk. Everywhere we went on vacation, people asked us to review them on this site.
MCK Doji day and on the 10 DMA. Risk is 121.45
CBST 63.55 good risk point now. Has recent highs to clear so wouldn’t stick around if that doesn’t happen soon
APC over 92.90 makes new highs with the possibility of a move to 96.00 or so. Risk under S2
HCA Since I like to give a variety of stocks-volume, ATR, price, this one is consolidating with a great risk to under 37.75. Like to see it clear R1 38.93
LVS 58.11 recent highs to clear but also like this against 57.50. Looks good on monthly chart
TXN Doji close on the 10 DMA. Real close to taking out multiyear highs with risk now the 50 DMA
MDVN Like against 57.35 for possible move to new highs from here
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
KSS Continues to be a favorite stock especially over the 50 DMA 52.15
X Unconfirmed phase change to recovery provided it holds 18.02. The move would be to hold for a possible run to the 200 DMA and beyond
WAG Unconfirmed phase change to bullish if todays low holds. 49.30 looks like good point to clear now
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
AMT Big reversal today and now, 70.07 risk. Has support at 68 on daily, but longer term chars show potential for lower prices
CAT Today’s high good risk and under recent lows could see move to 75.00
SPN Confirmed distribution phase with 25.05 resistance.
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots.. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day’s lows
GOOG If market weakens, this could see a drop to 845. Then, the 200 DMA next major support. Risk 862.60 and has to break S1 first
Bye For Now
