Low volume digestion day with the Jewish New Year and ahead of all the potential storms-Syria, the Fed, Jobs report. Nasdaq remains the solo index in a bullish phase, but with the inclining slope of the 50 DMA in the others, and with price so very close to penetrating the 50 DMA especially in the small caps, which would be awesome, seems the direction market wants is higher! All indices formed an inverted Hammer Candlestickformation. Inverted Hammer: Represents a potential trend reversal or support levels. Needs confirmation with either a gap higher or good up day move with volume. What to watch for.
Real estate remains a concern while semiconductors confirmed a bullish phase. Lots of variables at play, so regardless of up or down from here-it should be big either way.
S&P 500 (SPY) Really can make a case here for up or down-sitting under the 50 DMA. Subscribers: Positive pivots in all indices.
Russell 2000 (IWM) If breaks Thursday low we can probably make a better case for more downside all around. However, 102.50 is a great place to see clear for a strong finish the last quarter of the year.
Nasdaq (QQQ) Inches from 2013 high-so again, a failure could be ugly but a break above-sweet!
ETFs:
XLF (Financials) Came one tick from filling the gap from August 26th low. That could be also telling. Above 19.93 better case for resume really.
SMH (Semiconductors) 37.50 a good point to hold but the 50 DMA would be even betterSubscribers: Long ½ and using the 50 DMA to calculate risk
XRT (Retail) Like to see this over 80.00 as it too is flirting with the 50 DMA
IYT (Transportation) If you examine this daily chart, it had 2 great runs this summer both up then down. Now, it’s slogging along in the middle of the summer range
IBB (Biotechnology) New highs doji day
IYR (Real Estate) 2 inside days. The plot thickens Subscribers: 2 inside days so big eyes again tomorrow
XHB (Homebuilders) Inside day so also ready to become more decisive for next move
GLD130 key support or could get nasty here again
OIH (Oil Services)Got super close to 2013 highs Subscribers: Took 1/3 off and now no loss stop
XLE (Energy) Subscribers: Ultimately, this move doesn’t mean all that much until it clears 84.00
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Subscribers: Will watch for an opening range reversal
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Has been in an uptrend against an inclining 50 DMA since mid-May. Just saying.
UUP (Dollar Bull) Strong dollar with unconfirmed phase change to bullish
EWG (Germany) Subscribers: Inside day. Watch the 50 DMA for possible reentry or over 26.00
FXI (China) Over the 200 DMA for an unconfirmed phase change to accumulation
SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: Really close again to the 50 DMA-I will try this again if it sets up
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
**NOTE: I suggest you watch today’s video as I lay out many setups to watch for from buy and hold to miniswings as we head into final quarter of 2013. Today’s list is long because these are my favorite setups for big profits low risk. I will be tracking them and reporting to you on twitter. I do not expect or want everything to set up on the same day. I suggest you put them into a radar screen to watch for the upcoming week as well.
Category 1: (Aloha) N/A
Category 2: (Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
GMCR Even though it sold off, the pivots are positive and the trend strong. 83.80 good risk and really want to see it clear the pivots and R1
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
TRIP If holds today’s low, worth another shot
LNC 43.20 should hold and still like the chart a lot for a longer term move-one of the possible buy and hold trades
KOG Long and made new 2013 highs. 10.31 should really hold now, especially on a closing basis. Risk will get moved up once it clears 1.5 ATRs
MCK Really close to 2 Inside days. 122.17 now a good risk, the 10 DMA. Still like it.
DOW Still poised for a longer term trade especially if holds 37.80 now, the 10 DMA. Look for a reversal or breakout over 38.50
HCA This one is consolidating with a great risk to under 37.99. Like to see it clear today’s high
MBT Big move today and now has to hold 20.90 the 10 DMA. Clearing the 80 monthly as well, so another one to watch for long term move
TXN Real close to taking out multiyear highs with risk now 39.00
ALXN Inside day. Would only risk to today’s low and S1 but a biotech that could have some room to 2013 highs. More mini to swing
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
KSS Phase change to unconfirmed bullish-look for an opening range reversal against 52.15 level for a buy and hold
X Took ½ ATR and now would hold the rest with a stop under 18.25 looking to see what happens at the 200 DMA
BEAM would like to see it hold the 200 DMA at 62.71 and then clear the 50 DMA 63.77 for another long term trade against recent lows
GE if holds the 200 DMA 22.85, like over 23.50 for another longer term trade idea
MAS Had a slingshot low on 8/29 and is now just about to take out the 200 DMA. If does, like this one for a long term trade as well with risk to under recent lows
FSLR 2 day brick wall pattern against the 200 DMA with risk under 35.59 longer term and under 37.60 short term.
INTC Confirmed the phase to warning with an inside day. Risk is the 200 DMA 22.27
Shorts: All potential swings-note the real estate REITs look weak.
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
XOM Like 88.00 as a risk with the possible move to 80.00 if recent lows break
DE Broke the 50 DMA and now can use 83.56 resistance. Recent support at 79.50 which if breaks can see 70.00
CAT Inside day. 84.07 is the 50 DMA resistance with potential for move to 75.00 next support
MOS Today’s high max risk also has huge downside potential
EXPE Needs to break 47.75 S1 and also has downside to 35 and even 26.00
AMT Short ½ position with a swing risk over today’s high. Has to break 67.89 to negate a weak but in place brick wall bottom
V Got out with teeny loss but would not hesitate to get short again against 176.90 and if today’s low breaks could see 171 or lower
Category 6: White Cap-N/A
Bye For Now
