Wait, was it Friday the 13th? Oh right, Friday the 13th is THIS coming Friday! It sure felt like a day filled with goblins and ghouls as the market opened better with the jobs report, tanked with Putin’s hawkish remarks, then recovered with NASDAQ making new 2013 highs only to close around unchanged. The S&P 500 and Russell 2000’s both tried hard to join ranks with NASDAQ’s bullish phase, but at the end of the session, simply ran out of gas. (As did most traders I imagine.) The market will begin this week equally sensitive to rumors concerning Syria, anxiously awaiting any decisiveness from the Fed regarding their bond buying policy along with any other shockers that might appear out of nowhere. My thought process is that theFed will buy bonds aggressively this coming week, preventing a free fall from happening-of course with the usual sector rotation that this type of action yields. With Real Estate outperforming relative to the overall market’s performance last Friday (certainly not according to the current phases) along with Homebuilders, it seems I’m not the only one who detects this possibility.
S&P 500 (SPY) Failed the 50 DMA or more aptly put, tested and closed just shy of it. Following the inverted hammer candlestick last Thursday, it had an up day marginally with an accumulation in volume. However, unless this clears the 50 DMA then 167.30, heed the warning phase. Subscribers: Negative pivots in all indices.
Russell 2000 (IWM) I often turn here when we have QQQ and SPY so diverse from one another. Warning phase closing just under the 50 DMA. Come Monday morning, this is what I’ll be watching. Higher open, going to take a more bullish bias all around. But, an open under 101.80 will spook me for sure.
Dow (DIA) Here’s another piece of the puzzle to chew on. This never got close to the 50 DMA since it gapped below it on August 15th. Blue chips are definitely not where it’s at!
Nasdaq (QQQ) On August 13th the 2013 high close was 77.10. Friday’s close 76.93. Monday will be the 1st time since before Labor Day the floor trader midpoints are stacked negatively, which makes 76.75 down to 76.55 important support to hold to start the week.
ETFs: (Subscribers-most sectors have negative pivots as well. Will point out any exceptions)
XLF (Financials) Came one tick from filling the gap from August 26th low at 19.93 two days in a row. That could be also telling. Above 19.93 better case for resume really.
SMH (Semiconductors) 37.50 a good point to hold but the 50 DMA ast 38.12 would be even betterSubscribers: Long ½ and using the 50 DMA to calculate risk
XRT (Retail) Like to see this over 80.00 as it too is flirting with the 50 DMA. See lots of retail stocks looking heavy.
IBB (Biotechnology) Shooting star candlestick? Not trying to call a top-more of a rest
IYR (Real Estate) Gapped higher. Like to see it stay above Friday’s low. Subscribers: Positive pivots
XHB (Homebuilders) Doji candle just under the 200 DMA
GLDNot real clear to me right here
USO (US Oil Fund)New 2013 highs
OIH (Oil Services)New highs for the year Subscribers: Took 1/3 off and now no loss stop
XLE (Energy) Subscribers: Ultimately, this move doesn’t mean all that much until it clears 84.00
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Subscribers: Textbook opening range reversal Friday to study. Now, it has to clear the 2013 highs
UUP (Dollar Bull) Back to unconfirmed phase change to Distribution
EWG (Germany) Subscribers: Elections here September 22nd
FXI (China) Confirmed accumulation phase if the 200 DMA holds
SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: Unconfirmed recovery phase. I know this is bottoming. Now, it’s a matter of the best risk/reward. Thinking a buy around 58.00 if dips there
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
**NOTE: New and Old Subscribers: I do not include on the list 1. Anything with a weekly or daily RSI over 92 2. Anything within 4 days of reporting earnings 3. Anything with a risk over 1 ATR from its current close 4. Anything with only one day under the Floor Trader Pivots (unless specifically noted. 5. Anything with a potential slingshot or brick wall high (new 60 day high, close in the bottom 25% of the intraday range.
Category 1: (Aloha) N/A
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can eitherbuy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
HCA 40.50 is the high to clear. And now, for risk sake, have to look at an opening range reversal against 39.25
NAV Cleared the 10 DMA making Friday low good risk. If can clear 36.00 could see 41-43.00
IP Consolidating over the 10 and 50 DMAs. Over 48.00 looks good to test 50.00 or higher
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
HUN Converging moving averages which cleared on Friday. Friday’s low 17.54 max risk
USG Unconfirmed phase change to recovery. Max risk Friday low. One over the 80 monthly moving average for a longer term hold
AAPL 495 has to hold and 500 to clear to see 515-520 next
KSS Inside day. Confirmed bullish-Friday low now good support level to hold
BEAM would like to see it hold the 200 DMA at 62.76 and then clear the 50 DMA 63.80 for another long term trade against recent lows
GE DOJI candle resting on the 200 DMA. Will not hesitate to buy over 23.50 or if this can continue to hold the 200 DMA
MAS Pushed against the 50 DMA-look for a setup on Monday against the 200 DMA or over the 50 DMA
FCX Over Friday high clears the 200 DMA with next major resistance at 33.00. Risk 31.00
FSLR 35.59 has to hold. If does, 37.70 is the 200 DMA and pivotal
INTC Confirmed the phase to warning with an inside day. Risk is the 200 DMA 22.28
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
UNP Looks like a double top from July and August with now a weak close under the 10 DMA. Can use 158.10 for swing risk or the pivots for shorter term with possible move down to 152.00
IBM 184.43 resistance-last week wrote this could see 171 area next
COH 53.60 good resistance. 51.50 the ultimate support to break
XOM Like Friday’s high as a risk with the possible move to 80.00 if recent lows break
EQIX Sharp move down Friday. Now look for a low risk entry with 165 level next support
Category 6: White Cap-N/A
Bye For Now
