Call it lack of fresh news, breath holding now that earnings has begun, a market in digestion near the highs-your guess is as good as mine-but today was choppy with some great performers and others totally weak. It's that kind of divergence that keeps trading interesting. It's also a reason to have a mixed portfolio with longs and shorts (although with current phase, more long than short) and a bunch of instruments that seem to do their own thing regardless-like Pandora-one that has been very good to us last 2 years.
S&P 500 (SPY) Over 146 will look a lot better. January 2 low-144.73 key to hold. Not much has changed Subs: Pivots Positive
Russell 2000 (IWM) Back to leadership with last week's high 87.44 the next small hurdle. Subs: Pivots Positive
Dow (DIA) Last week's high 134.20 to clear today's low to hold Subs: Pivots Positive
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) AAPL is keeping this from flying, but lots of other names in this index held up well. Ultimately has to clear 67.34 last week's high and hold now around today's low. Subs: Pivots Positive
ETFs:
GLD Having issues getting through the 200 DMA which seems like a good thing for the overall market. Subs: Pivots negative so back to looking at a short
XLF (Financials) Troublesome as it made a new 2013 high then proceeded to close near but not on the lows. That means tomorrow could be decisive about it holding here or selling off maybe back to 16.70
IBB (Biotechnology) Admittedly, I never expected this to take the lead once again in 2013. But, here it is-now overbought on the daily RSI
SMH (Semiconductors) Held the fast moving average with a late day rally. Now, with an inside day, follow the range break
XRT (Retail) Began the week negative in this sector, and still feel this is a good sector to look for shorts
IYT (Transportation) 101 here we go
IYR (Real Estate) 66.57 fills the gap from 9/19.
USO (US Oil Fund) 33.95 -34.10 resistance to clear. Subs: Took a very small position in SCO, the ultrashort with a stop under recent low 38.74
OIH (Oil Services) Subs: If cannot clear 40.32 might still be a decent short-but it is over the 200 weekly moving average
XLE (Energy) Correcting into support and a bit choppy
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Subs: Got my dip to 65.06 and now long again
DVY (Select Dividend Index) 58.10 now support to hold. Subs: R1 and today's high line up.
REE (Rare Element Reserve) Looking to see if this can clear 4.00 Subs: Stop tomorrow could be under today's low-will tweet in the AM
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Subs: Still long with anticipation that the 10 DMA can hold
UUP (Dollar Bull) Has to clear 22.10
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
ESV* Has to clear 62.00 and hold today's low
OII Watch today's low to hold and clear R1 for another leg up.
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
USG* Has to clear 29.85 on a closing basis and hold 28.42
BAX* Slightly negative pivots. Inside day. Watch the range break
LNKD* Improved in condition. 112 today's low good risk
FSLR Reports 1/31. Has to hold today's low as it improved in condition over the 10 DMA
ECL Max risk the 10 DMA 72.96 and has to clear today's high and R1
VMC Like over 54.03 R1 if can hold today's low
AFL* Long at 52.00 and now want to see it clear the 10 DMA 52.75
WHR* Hammer candle after a good open. As long as today's low holds, still in play
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
PPO Has to hold today's low which is on the 50 DMA and then clear 41.89 for a pop
Phase Change: DVA* I will look to buy this over today's high provided 109.50 holds. CA 23.21 has to clear-featured on today's video. BRE Inside day. Like over 51.31 INTC* good close and still a pick for this year. Over 21.56 takes out Tuesday high TSLA good correction with 33.00 a wall of support to hold. Inside day. Like over today's high STLD 2 inside days. Over the 65 weekly moving average. Through 15.00 could see 17.00 or higher. 14.50 good risk
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
DDS If cannot clear the 50 DMA 80.55 then under today's low would short
RRC Was a perfect short on the OR high failure against Tuesday high (no position). Now, 63.90 should be resistance
LULU 71.92 is the 50 DMA that this should not cross. 69.00 is the 200 DMA below, for now support
Bye for Now!
