The financial sector resumed the lead and my dear friend semiconductors (if you follow the ETFs I write about, you know I have tracked this carefully), also busted out. One last little nagging indicator would like to see join the party and that is NASDAQ. AAPL has been all over the map, but it's QQQs that over last week's high, should get sidelined investors back in. Volume, although better today, is still well below the average daily since this year began.
S&P 500 (SPY) 146 was the magic number. Next resistance goes back to September at 148.11. Subs: Pivots Positive
Russell 2000 (IWM) Took a bit of breather which is well deserved since it has done its job since late November Subs: Pivots Positive
Dow (DIA) Has a small gap from October to fill at 135. Like to see 133.90 hold Subs: Pivots Positive
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Has to clear 67.34 last week's high and hold now around 66.70. Subs: Pivots Positive
ETFs:
GLD Cleared the 200 DMA but question remains on whether or not it stays here.
XLF (Financials) Today was indeed decisive with a move over 17.09 and now looking like 17.20 is next with 20 the ultimate target.
IBB (Biotechnology) Now overbought on the daily RSI
SMH (Semiconductors) If you followed the range break after an inside day, you got long and went home happy. Now, 34.00, a nagging point of resistance for a year, is the "somewhere over the rainbow" to clear
XRT (Retail) Held the 50 DMA so for now, will show if this can run with the market, or give a new opportunity to short Subs: Negative Pivots
IYT (Transportation) 101 here we go
IYR (Real Estate) Top of a long ascending channel. Could see more if takes out today's high
USO (US Oil Fund) Tried hard but did not succeed in closing above the 200 DMA. Subs: Kept SCO, the ultrashort for now
OIH (Oil Services) Subs: Back in play-looking at 42.00 perhaps
XLE (Energy) 73.89 is the next resistance
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Wrote a dip to 65.12 was a buy opportunity earlier this week.
DVY (Select Dividend Index) 58.90 last week's high
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Subs: Looking to add over 56.00
XHB (Homebuilders) Subs: No position, but I still look here for a short opportunity at some point
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.
Category 1: (Aloha) N/A Category 2: (Pipeline)N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
OII Over today's high looks good. 56.25 good risk
BAX* 68.12 the number to hold
CBS Good risk to day's low and could see move to 40.00
MUR* This week and a 2013 pick that had an opening range reversal today.
LNKD* would look for a reversal if possible against today's low
FSLR Reports 1/31. 31.70 should hold and will look for another opportunity since did not keep the buy on the opening range reversal
VMC Bought a starter position at 54.00 and like to see it clear 54.30 for an add and hold today's low or the 10 DMA for a swing
SWK Triggered today. Now has to hold 75.24 and clear 75.96
KLIC Long on the reversal. Over today's high looks good with support the 10 DMA
TSO* Big comeback. Now, 42.00 is max risk if gets a reversal
MAS* Almost an inside day with good risk to 17.00.
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change: DVA* Long ½ position and eager to add over today's high and the 50 DMA provided 109.50 holds. INTC* Reports before the open January 18th. Now has to hold 21.50. TSLA Still like this as long as 33 holds but got out with a small probe. Now, over 34.00 would reenter STLD A wedge forming which looks better if today's high clears EQT* Inside day and one I exited but now would look to reenter over R1 with risk to 56.84 PM Changed phase to unconfirmed recovery if the 50 DMA holds, look for an opening range reversal
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
BBBY Slightly negative pivots. Has to break S1 ad not clear 56.80
DDS If cannot clear the 50 DMA 80.55 then under today's low would short
RRC Still here if it breaks today's low and cannot clear 63.90
NTAP 2 inside days that cannot clear 32.81
Bye for Now!
