Low volume week but strong finish pricewise. The trend is clearly intact in the S&P 500. In the NASDAQ, again, in spite of AAPL's weakness, it closed near the highs. And the small caps ended with an inside day, which is a well-deserved breather. So, although the natural tendency is for a climb up the "wall of worry', and anticipation that the "other shoe will drop" (too many clichés?), all systems are go for more upside.
S&P 500 (SPY) Next resistance goes back to September at 148.11. Support to hold 146.75 Subs: Pivots Positive
Russell 2000 (IWM) Took a bit of breather again ending with an inside day Subs: Pivots Negative-so S1 is important.
Dow (DIA) Has a small gap from October to fill at 135. Like to see 134.20 hold Subs: Pivots Positive
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Has to clear 67.34 and hold now 66.40. Subs: Pivots Positive
ETFs:
GLD On that question on whether or not this could hold the 200 DMA, the answer is no. Subs: It filled the gap from the jump higher. The 200 DMA is pivotal-can still go either way
XLF (Financials) After an inside day, 17.20 is next with 20 the ultimate target. And support 17.00 has to hold
IBB (Biotechnology) Inside day and breather which could be more correction in store if breaks 144.55. Subs: I began this year thinking that this would not be a sector leader, which means, could be a short for the near term
SMH (Semiconductors) 34.00, a nagging point of resistance for a year, is the "somewhere over the rainbow" to clear. But still love this for 2013.
XRT (Retail) Inside day andheld the 50 DMA so for now, will show if this can run with the market, or give a new opportunity to short
IYT (Transportation) 101 coming soon.
IYR (Real Estate) Retreated some from the top of a long ascending channel.
USO (US Oil Fund) Back through the 200 DMA will have renewed life but longer term trend remains negative
OIH (Oil Services) Crossed the 200 weekly moving average
XLE (Energy) 73.89 is the next resistance
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Sold off on Friday but held the 200 DMA. Still believe rates will climb this year
DVY (Select Dividend Index) 58.90 recent highs
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Subs: Added to the existing long and want to see the 10 DMA hold
XHB (Homebuilders) Subs: No position, but I still look here for a short opportunity at some point. Inside day
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.
Category 1: (Aloha) Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
OII Over Thursday's high 56.54 looks good. Friday's low good risk
BAX* Long Friday. Reports 1/24 which means a good play til the. 67.88 the number to hold
CBS Good risk to 38.25 and could see move to 40.00
MUR* Has to clear 61.85 recent highs and loos good with risk 60.25
LNKD* Could be a slingshot if confirms. But overall, stock looks good if holds 117.30
FSLR Reports 1/31. 31.89 should hold and will look for another opportunity if clears 32.50 convincingly
KLIC Over R1 should get going
USG* Inside day. Would follow the range up with a stop under Friday low
TSO* Inside day and neutral pivots. Has to clear Thursdays high 43.03
TRIP Inside day. Has to hold Friday low
SPG Inside day. Risk is the 10 DMA with possibility of run to 170 before earnings
DO* Inside day. Already long but looks poised for more. Friday's low max risk.
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
TSLA Oversold. Still like this if it can cross and hold over 33. Support 32.40 to hold.
Phase Change EQT* Gapped higher and now has to hold Friday's low. GGP* Would consider a long over R1 with risk to 19.00 for a swing. IBM Over Friday's high looks good for a run to the 200 DMA especially in a good market. SRPT Closed near the 50 DMA and has had a good correction. Has to clear R1 and hold 26.21 CLH*Adding to a 2013 pick now. Has to hold Friday low and clear 56.35. Looking at the possibility of this moving over the 200 DMA RHT Inside day. Friday's low should hold and above Friday's high clears the 200 DMA (big eyes)
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
JWN Setting up for new short if fails the 200 DMA and Friday low.
DDS If cannot clear the 50 DMA 80.55 then under Friday's low would short
QCOR Inside day. Should not clear 26.20 and could see a move to 20.00
Bye for Now!
