Market appeared to be waiting for something fresh to go on-and nothing tangible emerged. Therefore, this day was more healthy digestion with no major damage done. Furthermore, the Russell 2000, which has been leading, now has 2 inside days in a row, clearly a pause worth looking at.
S&P 500 (SPY) Next resistance goes back to September at 148.11. Support to hold 146.00 area Subs: Pivots Negative
Russell 2000 (IWM) 2 inside days which means follow the range break. Subs: Pivots Slightly positive, a good sign
Dow (DIA) Filled the October gap to 135. Subs: Pivots Positive
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Has to clear 67.34 and actually, held the fast moving average. Subs: Pivots Negative
ETFs:
GLD Back over the 200 DMA if holds today's low. Might be an opportunity if takes out 162
XLF (Financials) Held the fast moving average with 17.20 next and 20 the ultimate target.
IBB (Biotechnology) 2 inside days here as well. if breaks 144.80, should see the fast moving average.
SMH (Semiconductors) 34.00, a nagging point of resistance for a year, is the "somewhere over the rainbow" to clear. But still love this for 2013.
XRT (Retail) Held the 50- DMA and although it has some overhead resistance, looks better than it did. 63.40 would be first point to clear.
IYT (Transportation) 101 coming soon.
IYR (Real Estate) Sideways consolidation.
USO (US Oil Fund) Unconfirmed phase change to accumulation. 34.32 recent highs.
OIH (Oil Services) Crossed the 200 weekly moving average, but had a bearish engulfing pattern which means could be a place to look for shorts
XLE (Energy) 73.89 is the next resistance Subs: This could be getting ready to blast off.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) As long as this holds today's low, still believe rates will climb this year
DVY (Select Dividend Index) 58.90 recent highs. Looking good again
XHB (Homebuilders) Subs: Under 27.48 might be vulnerable. LEN reports tomorrow
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.
Category 1: (Aloha) N/A
Category 2: (Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
ARG Reports before the open 1/24. Oversold so looking for a move over today's high and hold of 92.30
TGI Reports 1/30. Held recent gap. Over R1 68.09 looks good to 70.00 or beyond
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
MUR* Has to clear 61.85 recent highs and looks good with risk 60.50
KLIC Over R1 should get going
TSO* has to clear 42.73 to get another push and hold today's low
TRIP Long on opening range reversal. Will add over 44.60 and look for 44.00 hold
TSLA Inside day and over the 40 DMA. Could see more bounce from here if holds today's low
COG Back in the channel which means a hold 48.20 area and could see move to 52.00
IPG S1 and the 10 DMA line up as good risk and has to clear R1 11.78
BEAM* 61.00 is some resistance so if can get a tight risk to around 60.75 would go for it.
DISH Improved in condition. Has to hold 36.00 and clear 37.02 R1
SWK* Reports 1/24. Today's low has to hold and clear today's high
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change BXP* Inside day right on the 200 DMA. RHT Unconfirmed accumulation phase if holds 54.60 level
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
JWN has to stay under 53.90 the 200 DMA
NEM Max risk R1 and has some support at 44.60 that has to break
Bye for Now!
